PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 5:50 AM CST055
FXUS63 KPAH 101150
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
550 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will increase early
this morning and continue through much of the day, mainly over
the southeast half of the Quad State. Additional rainfall of
0.5-1.0" is expected, while a narrow zone of 2-3" will be
possible, mainly over west Kentucky.
- Temperatures will remain mild, generally at or above normal,
through next weekend.
- The forecast is trending wetter for Wednesday and Wednesday
night.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 550 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
Visibilities over southeast Missouri have improved as winds have
increased, so the Dense Fog Advisory will be allowed to expire
at 6 AM.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
A 40kt low-level jet is fueling an increase in coverage of
showers early this morning. The intensity is likely to increase
through daybreak, as well, with much of the 00Z and later
guidance indicating a relatively narrow band of 3+" of rainfall
running northeast across west Kentucky through midday Sunday.
Instability remains very limited, but there may be enough
elevated instability to generate a few lightning strikes. Will
maintain a slight chance of thunderstorms through the day.
The showers should be limited to far southern portions of west
Kentucky by this afternoon, but there will be the possibility of
another narrow band of heavy rainfall there. All of the
precipitation should be southeast of the region by 00Z this
evening. If that heavy rainfall develops as forecast through the
day, some isolated flooding issues will be possible, mainly of
the typical low-lying and poorly draining areas.
The increase in showers early this morning should mostly stay to
the east of the Dense Fog Advisory. Will leave the Advisory as
is for now, and will monitor for either a cancellation or
expansion based on ground truth observations and radar trends.
High pressure aloft will gradually build over the Quad State
early this week, but surface high pressure will also build,
resulting in temperatures dropping to near normal levels
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Otherwise, temperatures will be above
normal next week and through next weekend.
The 00Z guidance has trended stronger and more amplified with a
storm system that will briefly flatten the upper ridge over the
Quad State late Wednesday through Thursday. However, there
remains quite a spread in the intensity and resultant QPF for
the region. The system is generally deep enough to draw some
Gulf moisture up the Mississippi Valley which could lead to some
substantial QPF for the Quad State, but there is no consensus
for that just yet. For now chance PoPs are forecast for the
entire region as the system passes, but QPF is well under a
quarter inch.
The upper flow will become more amplified on the larger-scale
for the end of the week and next weekend, with an upper ridge
located over Quad State through at least Saturday. There is
some chance that the ridge will be flattened enough to allow
energy to bring some more showers to the region by next Sunday
or Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
Showers will continue to stream over KOWB for much of the day,
while KPAH and KEVV will get a final round this morning. LIFR
ceilings will be the primary aviation impact and will take much
of the morning to improve. VFR conditions are expected at all
sites other than KOWB at some point this afternoon. KOWB will
have IFR to MVFR ceilings through the day and will not become
VFR until this evening. Southwest winds may gust 15-20kts at
times this afternoon. Winds will become northwest at 5kts or
less this evening, but that should be sufficient to prevent fog
formation overnight.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 5:50 AM CST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
