IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 1:22 PM EST417
FXUS63 KIWX 071822
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
122 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry with temperatures at or slightly above early November normal
through Saturday.
* Rain showers return Saturday night into Sunday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024
Fair/seasonable wx to persist through Saturday. A northern
stream wave clips the northern/eastern Great Lakes late tonight
into Friday, sending a weak sfc trough through the local area.
The only notable impact will be a slight uptick in wnw winds
during the day on Friday, and some passing clouds. Ridging
builds through the column then into Friday night and Saturday
downstream of a Four Corners upper low ejecting into the Central
Plains. This stacked low then becomes the feature of interest
into Saturday night and Sunday with excellent model agreement in
a track northeast through the Upper Midwest and northern Great
Lakes. A period of rain showers appears likely within the warm
advection wing. Progressive nature to frontal occlusion and
quick veering of LLJ shunting deeper moisture off to the sse
suggest a 0.10-0.50" type rain event, best chances late Saturday
evening through Sunday morning. Breezy and relatively mild
otherwise on Sunday.
Dry weather returns early next week in wake of the weekend
system with temps still averaging a little above normal. 12z
guidance continues to highlight the potential for a more
vigorous shortwave and cold front to track through toward the
middle of next week with renewed rain chances and breezy
conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024
Lake induced stratus has mixed out for the most part, slowly
eroding at KFWA and becoming SCT at KSBN. High pressure today
guarantees light wind through much of the TAF period. A weak
upper-level trough drops in tonight from the north prompting a
backing of the surface wind. Cannot completely rule out MVFR
stratus at KSBN with this feature, but upstream observations and
forecast guidance indicates the probability is low at this
time. Instead, I do think at least some shallow fog is probable
at KFWA. Further removed from the the aformentioned trough,
surface wind speeds appear lower and the cross over temperatures
appears at play. Confidence is medium in BR/FG occurring.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Brown
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 1:22 PM EST---------------
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