PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 9:09 PM CST724
FXUS63 KPAH 100309
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
909 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will increase tonight
into Sunday, before their departure Sunday PM. Upwards to 2
inches storm total rainfall is possible over portions of
southern Kentucky, with lesser amounts to the northwest.
- Seasonally mild temperatures with 60s and 70s covers the
entirety of the forecast, with the next chance of rain
incoming by mid week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024
Dense fog has developed across parts of the Ozark Foothills of
southeast Missouri, mainly between Poplar Bluff and West Plains.
The next round of rain showers looks to stay east of this
region, so the fog will likely persist through the night.
Collaborated with neighboring offices to issue a Dense Fog
Advisory for this area through 12z.
Additionally, upped the wording in the HWO for the potential for
localized flooding overnight across parts of western KY. Several
of the 00z CAMs are depicting a narrow band of heavy rain
developing roughly along a line from Mayfield to Princeton to
Owensboro. Rainfall totals of 1-3" are possible in this area if
this band of rain does develop. Given the antecedent dry
conditions, high-impact flash flooding does not look likely, but
some localized issues are possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1254 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024
A low pressure storm system will lift from the Central Plains
to the Great Lakes by this time tomorrow. There is enough
moisture (ample), instability (minimal), and lift (moderate) to
keep our slight chance of thunder mention, but the primary
consideration is rainfall. Up to 2 inches of storm total
rainfall is still a possibility for portions of southern Ky,
with the heaviest banding late tonight into early Sunday
morning. Lesser amounts, even to minimal amounts, are possible
further northwest.
The system continues to lift and trek to the east and northeast
with time, as high pressure fills in its wake. This will draw in
drier air and end our pops west-to-east late tmrw pm/evening.
With a zonal flow, there is no exceptionally "cold" airmass
incoming with the high, so max temperatures will actually
rebound into the lower 70s tmrw as things clear out. We go a
little more northerly with the flow around the high early in the
work week, so nighttime temps cool down to the 40s and the
diurnal rebound yields a returns highs in the 60s, but they
still run seasonal or even a little above seasonal norms leading
to our next chance of pcpn incoming by mid week. It's a quick
mid week system passage with dry conditions returning and
seasonally mild temperatures continuing to finish out the week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 517 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024
Widespread showers will continue to push across the region
overnight through much of Sunday. Cloud bases will lower to MVFR
and eventually IFR as low-level saturation increases. Vsbys
reductions from rain will be mainly low VFR, though brief MVFR
conditions are possible. Cannot rule out isolated lightning
activity, but the chance was too low to mention at this time. We
will see improvement from NW to SE through the day Sunday as
the rain and low clouds depart. E-SE winds overnight will become
SW Sunday morning and afternoon, mainly at 5-10 kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for MOZ100-107>109.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DWS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 9:09 PM CST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
