BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 12:44 PM EST026
FXUS61 KBOX 061744
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
Issued by National Weather Service New York NY
1244 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Record breaking warmth today with a gradual cooldown expected
through the weekend. Isolated risk for a spot shower across the
Berkshires this evening will be the only shower chance through
Saturday. The remains uncertainty regarding a potentially more
robust precipitation event to round out the holiday weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12:30 PM Update...
A blustery and warm November day across southern New England.
Record highs have already fallen at the climate sites early
this afternoon as temperatures have climbed well into the 70s
and even localized lower 80s, with the exception of the Cape.
Still time to climb another a couple of degrees. Wind gusts up
to 30 mph persist into early evening. Forecast remains on track
and earlier discussion follows.
6:30 AM Update...
We're off to a very mild start, a morning more reminiscent of
late August or early September with temps and dewpoints in the
60s. We should have no problem soaring into the 70s with this
warm start, so bumped high temperatures up a bit using a blend
of the previous forecast and the ADJLAV to add a few 80F
readings in our typical hot spots.
Ridging crests over New England this morning with large high
pressure centered off the Carolina coastline, which will yield
another day of potentially record breaking temperatures for southern
New England. 850 mb temps around 14C are supportive of widespread
highs in the mid 70s today but expecting temperatures to overachieve
given westerly flow and very dry soils that will maximize the
heating potential today. Confidence is high that many of our typical
warm spots, such as Norwood and Bradley Airports, will soar
into the upper 70s, but given temperatures overachieved by a few
degrees on Tuesday, do think that a few locales will touch the
80F mark this afternoon. Took the opportunity to blend in warmer
guidance with the previous forecast to boost highs, with a
focus on the CT River Valley and metro west where the warmest
temperatures can be expected.
Strong LLJ overhead, between 40-50kt at 925mb, will shift to
our east through the day as ridging shifts seaward and a cold
front approaches from the northwest. While we miss the worst of
the jet, do expect wind gusts to as high as 30kt to mix to the
surface late this morning and early this afternoon. Fire weather
concerns remain elevated given blustery conditions and
extremely dry soils.
Aforementioned cold front approaches very late this afternoon
and evening and looks to be a mainly dry frontal passage, though
some orographic enhancement may lead to a few light sprinkles
across the higher terrain of the Berkshires before 00Z tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
Tonight...
Cold front continues to move to the southeast overnight which allows
the sprinkle/light rain shower potential to extend into the early
hours of Thursday morning across far NW MA. While post frontal winds
slacken, it will take some time for dewpoints to drop, which coupled
with cloud cover overnight will cap radiational cooling.
Anticipating widespread lows in the 50s with a few upper 40s
possible in the Worcester Hills.
Thursday...
Zonal flow develops behind the front for Thursday but do anticipate
above normal temperatures, ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s, to
hang on for another day thanks to moderately warm temperatures aloft
(in the 7-8C range at 850mb) and more abundant sunshine. Gusty NW
winds possible again in the afternoon, but should peak at less
than 20kt. NW winds will also usher in much drier air, with
dewpoints dropping into the 40s by tomorrow afternoon. Trough
dips south from Quebec late Thursday which will start a gradual
cooling trend into the overnight hours.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points...
* Dry Fri & Sat with temps trending cooler/more seasonable by Sat
* A period of rain remains possible sometime Sun into Mon
* Dry weather returns Tue/Wed with temps likely a bit above normal
Details...
Friday and Saturday...
A secondary dry cold front will cross the region on Fri...which will
be followed by large high pressure for Sat. This will result in dry
weather with a continued cool down. High temps on Fri will still be
a bit above normal with highs in the upper 50s to the middle 60s.
However...cooler air works in from the north behind the cold front
which will hold high temps Sat in the 50s. In fact...overnight low
temps Sat night into early Sun morning should allow many outline
locations to bottom out well down in the 20s.
Sunday and Monday...
High pressure moves east of the region on Sun as low pressure tracks
across the Great Lakes and into Quebec/northern New England Mon.
Still quite a bit of uncertainty...but the potential still exists
for a period of much needed rain sometime Sun into Mon. Since the
low pressure system and best forcing will pass to our north...how
much rain we get will depend on whether we can get at least a
secondary wave to pass closer to our region. This will determine if
we get enough backing of the lower level jet and better moisture
transport. The system is also running into a bit of a mid level
ridge axis...so that could tend to diminish the rain threat. At this
point...timing and potential rainfall amounts are quite a bit
uncertain. Early thinking is this probably will not be a big
rainfall event but there is the potential for some which would help.
We will just have to see how this evolves over the next day or
two...as EPS/GEPS still showing quite a bit of spread.
Tuesday and Wednesday...
Mid level ridging and above normal heights build into the region Tue
into Wed. This will likely result in slightly above normal
temps...but temps probably will be tempered by onshore low level
flow given the position of high pressure. Still think a good chance
high temps break 60 Tue and Wed.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update...
Today...High Confidence.
VFR. SW wind gusts of 25-30 knots are starting to subside from
west to east across the terminals. For the remainder of the
afternoon, WSW gusts will continue 20-25kts, with an occasional
30kt gust across the eastern terminals including BOS, BED, HYA,
PVD and FMH.
Tonight...High Confidence.
VFR. SW winds gradually diminish to 5 to 10 knots later
tonight.
Thursday...High Confidence.
VFR. Winds becoming WNW at 5 to 15 knots.
KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/
Thursday Night: VFR.
Friday through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday Night: VFR.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Small craft advisories remain in effect for most of the waters
today for seas up to 7ft and wind gusts as high as 30kt,
decreasing this evening into tonight. Winds generally less than
20kt on Thursday with gradually diminishing seas, thus, SCAs
should fall off at their current expiration times ranging from
late tonight through early tomorrow morning.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Previous Record highs for Wednesday, November 6th
Boston: 76F set in 2022
Hartford: 76F set in 2022
Providence: 75F set in 2022
Worcester: 72F set in 2022
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for MAZ002>024-
026.
RI...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ235-
237.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 12:44 PM EST----------------
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