MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 11:36 AM CST ...New AVIATION...621
FXUS64 KMOB 071736
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1136 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
Low-end MVFR to IFR ceilings continue to spread across the local
region at issuance time. Ceilings should lift to low-end VFR by
the late afternoon/early evening hours and a few showers are
possible during this timeframe. IFR ceilings are expected to
return to the region after midnight tonight and linger through the
morning hours. Winds through the period will generally be
northeasterly at around 5 to 10 knots. /96
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
Upper ridging remains dominant across the Gulf of Mexico into the
Bahamas helping to keep the forecast area under southwest to
westerly flow aloft. Hurricane Rafael continues to slowly move
across the southern Gulf, staying well away from the forecast
area. Deep tropical moisture continues to be advected into the
area, allowing for isolated to scattered showers to remain in the
forecast through Friday. Best chances for rain will exist along
and southeast of the I-65 corridor today. High temperatures will
once again hinge on coverage of showers and storms, but overall
anticipate most areas at least cracking 80 degrees, with a few
spots managing some middle 80's, particularly nearer the coast.
Friday will be similar, with highs mostly in the lower 80's.
Overnight lows continue to be exceptionally warm, only falling
into the middle to upper 60's inland and lower 70's nearer the
coast. The November all time record warm minimum for Mobile may be
challenged today as we have yet to drop below 75 this morning,
with the previous record being 74 set on November 5th, 2003. If we
stay at and above 75 through midnight tonight, this would be the
warmest November morning on record for the Mobile area.
Thanks to Rafael sitting in the southern Gulf of Mexico, the
forecast area will see distant impacts in the form of strong rip
currents and high surf. A high risk of rip currents will continue
through the period. Additionally, a significant increase in surf
heights is expected. Surf heights of 5 to 7 feet will reach coastal
portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle by tonight, and will
likely linger through at least Saturday afternoon. Given this, a
High Surf Advisory will go into effect for the aforementioned areas
tonight, lasting through late Saturday afternoon. A secondary peak
is possible Saturday night into Sunday night, however confidence is
not high enough at this time to continue the advisory through that
timeframe. If confidence increases, an extension in the advisory
would be needed. MM/25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 71 83 69 84 70 79 64 80 / 10 20 10 20 30 40 20 10
Pensacola 73 81 71 81 72 78 68 78 / 20 10 0 20 20 30 20 10
Destin 72 82 72 82 71 81 69 80 / 20 10 0 10 10 30 20 10
Evergreen 70 83 68 83 65 78 61 80 / 20 30 0 10 20 40 20 20
Waynesboro 68 82 66 84 66 77 59 79 / 10 30 10 20 50 40 30 20
Camden 68 82 67 81 65 74 59 77 / 20 30 10 10 40 40 30 20
Crestview 71 84 68 86 65 82 62 84 / 20 20 0 10 20 30 20 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for ALZ265-266.
High Surf Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Saturday
for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ202-204-
206.
High Surf Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Saturday
for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon CST Saturday
for GMZ650-670.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight CST
Friday night for GMZ655-675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 11:36 AM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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