CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 12:33 PM EST988
FXUS61 KCLE 091733
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1233 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Central Great Lakes will drift east to New
England today. Low pressure over the Plains will track northeast
into the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday, lifting a warm front north
across the area. The will quickly be followed by a cold front on
Sunday night with high pressure building into the Ohio Valley on
Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12:33 PM EST Update...
Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model
guidance. No changes appeared necessary. Please see discussion
below for the details.
Previous Discussion...
The upper level ridge axis builds east across the area today
while surface high pressure starting off over the Great Lakes
moves to New England by tonight. For the local area this means
one more day of dry conditions before widespread rain arrives on
Sunday as a warm front lifts north into the area. Today will be
mostly sunny with some passing cirrus and high temperatures
within a couple degrees of normal in the 50s. Light easterly
winds can be expected and relative humidity will mix down to
below 30 percent for some inland locations this afternoon given
a very dry layer of air near 850mb.
For tonight and Sunday we will see low pressure track out of the
Plains towards the Upper Midwest. The pressure gradient will tighten
overnight and southerly flow will allow for warm advection and
rising temperatures after midnight. One place this will be
noticeable is in Erie PA where temperatures will climb with
downsloping conditions enhancing winds with gusts of 30-35 mph
possible into Sunday morning. Elsewhere clouds are expected to
thicken and lower but the arrival of rain into northwest Ohio will
not occur until after 2-4 AM. Rain will rapidly expand eastward
during the morning on Sunday as a 45 knot low level jet lifts
northeast towards Lake Erie. Rain is expected to be widespread with
a good window of isentropic ascent and a northward moving warm
front. Most areas are forecast to receive at least a half inch of
rain with pockets of three quarters of an inch or more. Temperatures
in the warm sector will be limited by the rain and strong inversion
near 925mb. While southerly winds will be breezy, the coverage of
rain and inversion are expected to keep the strong winds associated
with the low level jet from mixing down. The best opportunity for
both stronger wind gusts and late day high temperatures will be
during the afternoon in northwest and north central Ohio as a deep
dry-slot wraps into the system. Surface low pressure is forecast to
occlude over the Upper Midwest and the cold front will just be on
our doorstep by late Sunday afternoon. At that time, we may mix into
the stronger winds near 2500 feet of up to 30-35 knots but will not
mix into the stronger winds of 50+ knots at 7-10K feet. Highs will
peak in the mid 50s in NW Pennsylvania while potentially reaching
the mid 60s in NW Ohio.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Precipitation will begin to taper from west to east as the first of
two cold fronts sweeps east through the area Sunday night. Not
anticipating much of an air mass change with this first cold front.
Breezy conditions can be expected with the passing cold front Sunday
night, with 925 mb winds of 35 to 40 knots translating to brief
surface wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph, especially along the lakeshore
east of Cleveland.
The second cold front will arrive Monday night, ushering in a cooler
air mass across the region. Currently, DESI probabilities indicate a
>70% chance of 850 mb temperatures falling below 0C, though a lower
threshold of -4C yields much lower and brief probabilities (a
glancing blow), with the coldest air confined further towards the
north and northeast of the region. Nonetheless, would expect some
light, scattered lake-effect/enhanced rain showers across Northeast
Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Monday night into Tuesday,
especially with the frontal passage.
Above-average temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Monday
will fall back to near normal in the lower 50s behind the secondary
cold front for Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The main feature to watch in the long term period will be the
development of a low pressure system and associated upper-level
trough moving west to east across the Great Lakes in the Wednesday
night into Thursday timeframe. DESI cluster analysis reveals low
confidence amongst ensemble guidance for the mid-week system
regarding surface low pressure location and strength. However, much
of the area should expect rain at some point Wednesday night into
Thursday with the upper-level trough and associated surface cold
front passage.
Following the mid-week system, ensemble guidance is currently
favoring the development of an upper-level ridge across Central
CONUS which will slowly meander towards the Eastern CONUS by the end
of the week. This would would result in a return to above-average
temperatures in the mid to upper 50s for the end of the week and
into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Aloft, a ridge builds E'ward across our region through ~00Z/Sun.
Thereafter, the ridge begins to exit E'ward and a trough
approaches from the northern and central Great Plains through
18Z/Sun. At the surface, the ridge exits slowly E'ward as a
warm front approaches our region from the Lower MS Valley and
vicinity. This warm front is expected to begin to sweep NE'ward
across our region after ~12Z/Sun and near KERI and vicinity by
18Z/Sun. Our regional surface winds veer from SE'erly to S'erly
with the passage of the warm front and remain around 10 to 15
knots. Gusts up to 25 knots are expected at times, especially at
KERI and especially from ~05Z/Sun through 18Z/Sun.
Widespread mid/upper-level clouds and associated VFR ceilings
accompanying the warm front and preceding the aforementioned
trough aloft will lower/thicken into low-level clouds from SW
to NE between ~10Z/Sun and 18Z/Sun. The widespread low clouds
are expected to yield MVFR to IFR ceilings. Widespread rain,
heavy at times, is forecast to overspread our region from SW to
NE after ~07Z/Sun. Visibility is expected to vary between VFR
and MVFR in precip.
Outlook...Periodic rain with non-VFR expected through Monday
night. Additional periods of rain with non-VFR are possible this
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Mainly quiet marine conditions will persist through tonight with
high pressure overhead. Small Craft conditions may redevelop on
Sunday ahead of a cold front, with southerly winds increasing in the
15 to 25 knot range. Small Craft headlines will be needed Sunday
night through Monday night as winds shift towards the west to
northwest, and eventually north, 20 to 25 knots, behind the cold
front. West winds may occasionally gust between 30 and 35 knots
immediately behind the cold front late Sunday evening and Sunday
night, particularly across the eastern basin of Lake Erie.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Kahn
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 12:33 PM EST---------------
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