JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 7:25 PM EST388
FXUS63 KJKL 080025 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
725 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will continue through the middle of
next week.
- Widespread wetting rain event will impact the area during the
later part of the weekend. Heavy rain may cause localized
instances of high water in poor drainage areas, but will also
moderate fire activity across the area.
- Rain chances return the middle of next week with another frontal
passage.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 PM EST THU NOV 7 2024
23Z sfc analysis shows a cold front slowly settling through the
area. This has brought a bout of sprinkles, low clouds, and
intermittent fog to eastern Kentucky. Even so, temperatures
remain relatively mild along with elevated dewpoints. Accordingly,
readings vary from the mid 50s northwest, behind the front, to
the upper 60s in the far south, ahead of it. Meanwhile, amid
light winds, dewpoints range from the lower 50s north to the mid
60s south. Have updated the forecast mainly to fine tune the PoPs
and sprinkles through the night per the latest radar and CAMs
trends. Did also include the current obs and tendencies for the
T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and
web servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 254 PM EST THU NOV 7 2024
Precipitation continues to diminish in intensity and coverage across
eastern Kentucky as a stationary front continues to linger over the
area. However, low clouds and patchy light rain or sprinkles will
continue across the area through much of tonight, with clearing from
north to south Friday morning as a secondary cold front moves south
across the area. This secondary boundary stalls Friday night along
the TN and VA border area, where it will become a warm front and
begin to push back north at the very end of the period near sunrise
Saturday in far southwest parts of the forecast period.
Trended forecast for lows tonight a few degrees higher than the
previous forecast given greater confidence in cloud cover lingering
longer through the night, preventing any significant radiational
cooling from occurring. Nevertheless, these temperatures will be
much cooler than in recent overnight periods, with lows in the lower
40s north to upper 50s south.
At least partial clearing occurs Friday, with the secondary front
moving south to near the VA and TN borders by late afternoon. Thus,
high temperatures Friday will be in the lower to mid 60s north to
around 70 degrees along and south of the front.
With much of the area Friday night experiencing mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies, except for perhaps along the TN border close to
the stalled front, expect better radiational cooling with lows in
the upper 30s to lower 40s in the valleys and mid 40s on the
ridges.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 254 PM EST THU NOV 7 2024
By Saturday morning, large scale systems across CONUS feature an
upper level trough centered over western Kansas, with an attending
cold front extending south, from Iowa down to Louisiana.
Additionally, remnants of Hurricane Rafael, located over the Gulf of
Mexico, are expected to be about 200-300 miles off the Louisiana
coast. A warm and moist air mass from this hurricane is expected to
advect northward ahead of an associated surface cold front. Models
have varied over the last few days over how much moisture the
attached cold front will bring, however PWAT values are expected to
climb substantially.
For eastern Kentucky, expect dry morning conditions under light
easterly winds and increasing clouds from the southwest. Moisture
increases through the day and continues through Sunday. Dew points
are forecasted to rise from the mid 30s into the mid to upper 50s
overnight. Additionally, precipitable water increases from 0.40 to
1.60 inches during the same timeframe. Latest model runs speed up
the progression of the cold front into Eastern Kentucky. As a
result, showers may be seen as early as early-mid afternoon across
Wayne, McCreary, Pulaski, and Rockcastle counties. Showers will pick
up in intensity and coverage, spreading across the entire area
through Sunday. Some limited instability may produce a thundershower
or two through the day Sunday. The greatest chance of thundershowers
are mainly along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway.
Shower activity will taper off Monday morning, leaving many areas
with much needed rainfall. The probability of seeing at least half
an inch of rainfall is 75% or higher in most areas. Locations along
and south of Pikeville to Hazard, see the lowest probabilties of a
half inch of rainfall, yet probabilities are still around 50%.
Monday and Tuesday, partly cloudy skies and dry conditions can be
expected with a ridge of high pressure building in behind the
departing system. By midweek, an upper level trough looks to develop
over the Pacific Northwest and progress south and east into the
Northern Plains. By Wednesday afternoon, increasing clouds will lead
to more shower chances Wednesday evening into Thursday. This system
won't have as much moisture as the upcoming weekend system.
Temperatures for the period will largely remain in the mid 60s to
lower 70s, with lows in the low to mid 50s for the weekend, and
upper 30s to 40s beyond.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EST THU NOV 7 2024
Along, and in the wake of, a slow moving cold front, widespread
IFR conditions (mostly ceilings but also some pockets of low
visibility) will persist deep into the night. This will be the
case until the arrival of a secondary cold front moving in from
north to south bringing at least partial clearing. The partial
clearing will occur earliest at KSYM and then at the other TAF
sites by 12Z Friday. Any locations that clear before dawn will be
susceptible to fog formation, with KSYM the most likely to see
some lower visibilities due to higher confidence in clearing
arriving before sunrise. VFR conditions are then expected after
14Z for most sites - continuing through the remainder of the TAF
period. Winds will be variable at 5 kts or less through the
period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 7:25 PM EST---------------
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