ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 12:40 AM EST873
FXUS61 KILN 070540
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1240 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers may linger on Thursday as a front stalls near the
Ohio River. Dry weather takes over areawide on Friday as high
pressure settles over the Great Lakes. The next low pressure and
chance for rain arrives to the region on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Surface boundary apparent on Microphysics imagery is slowly
moving southeast... located near the I-71 corridor at this time.
Ahead of the boundary, wind field has collapsed and overcast
skies blanket the region. Behind the boundary there is a light
northwest breeze to 10 mph and clouds are patchy and generally
of a stratocumulus type. Dry conditions will continue through
the night for all except far south-central Ohio into northeast
Kentucky. There, an impulse moving along the old cold front
currently located near the Ohio River will initiate rain
showers late tonight, likely ending around sunrise.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The cold front weakens south of the area Thursday morning, with
northerly flow provided by surface high pressure off to the
west. Increased cloud cover behind the cold front with
lingering moisture supporting cloud growth through the mid
morning and early afternoon. Eventually, drier air will help to
reduce sky cover during the evening hours. Given the northerly
flow and sky cover, high temperatures will be about 10 degrees
cooler, but still only around normal for early November.
High pressure continues to nose in from the west during the
evening with overnight temperatures dropping into the 30s and
lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Split upper level flow regime with surface high pressure
building across the region for the end of the week. This high
will offer dry weather conditions.
Focus shifts to mid/upper level low that weakens as it tracks
northeast across the Plains and thru the Great Lakes this
weekend. Moisture to increase ahead of a warm front lifting
northeast across the region Saturday night. This will offer an
increased chance for rain with a chance for some embedded
thunder Sunday ahead of a surface cold front.
The region dries out Monday as high pressure builds into the
area in the wake of cold front. Dry conditions continue into
Tuesday as the high moves off to the east. A threat for rain
returns later Wednesday with the approach of the next frontal
system.
Above normal temperatures to continue with highs generally in
the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGs continue to expand locally and will persist through a
good portion of the daytime before scattering out late in the
day. CIGs should generally settle in between about 1800-2800ft
during this time, with some subtle lifting past 21z. A better
push of drier air moves in toward/past 00z, which will erode
lingering MVFR/VFR cloud cover and yield clear skies, with just
a few cirrus, for the final part of the TAF period.
Light winds out of the N at 5-7kts will be maintained through
about 00z Friday before subsiding a bit late in the period.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions will be possible Sunday into Monday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 12:40 AM EST---------------
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