JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 12:27 PM EST115
FXUS63 KJKL 071727
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1227 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will continue through the middle of
next week.
- Measurable rainfall occurs today in many places - with highest
amounts in the Bluegrass Region and lesser in the far southeast.
- Another widespread rain event with higher rainfall potential
will affect the area during the later part of the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 AM EST THU NOV 7 2024
Made some minor adjustments to PoPs and QPF through the remainder
of the Today period, mainly to reflect current trends. Also
removed any mention of thunder in the forecasts. Otherwise,
changes were minimal.
UPDATE Issued at 758 AM EST THU NOV 7 2024
Showers have filled in and are ongoing across our northern
counties, and the POP has been raised to likely and categorical
there this morning to account for this.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 523 AM EST THU NOV 7 2024
Early this morning a cold front was situated near the northwestern
edge of the forecast area, moving slowly southeastward. Upper
level support for the front's advancement is lackluster, with
broad mid/upper level ridging present over the southeast CONUS.
However, the front's slow movement in recent days has allowed
plenty of time for moisture to move in along the periphery of the
upper ridge before the front arrives. Some upper level jet
coupling also looks like it's aiding precip early this morning,
with the right entrance region of a Great Lakes/New England jet
being over the Ohio Valley while the left exit region of a
southern plains jet approaches from the southwest. Showers are
ongoing, mainly over our northwest counties closest to the front.
Sporadic lightning has been observed further west in KY. Forecast
sounding show weak instability for our area today, perhaps deep
enough for some lightning, and have used a slight chance in the
forecast.
The front will slowly move southeast through eastern KY today. At
the same time, favorable jet positions for precip will shift out
of our area. As a result, will expect precip to taper off with
time, giving way to dry weather by late tonight. Surface high
pressure building in from the northwest behind the cold front will
bring drier air and decreasing clouds tonight, with a generous
amount of sunshine expected to return on Friday. Temperatures
behind the front will cool down from the record readings we've had
in recent days, but are still expected to run above normal.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM EST THU NOV 7 2024
The 07/00z model suite is in good agreement on the synoptic scale
features through the forecast period through the period though
there are some timing and intensity differences. The 500H
analysis on Friday evening shows a departing trough over the
Northeastern CONUS/Eastern Canada. An ~590 dam high is situated
over Florida with a negatively-tilted ridge extending
northwestward across the Lower Ohio Valley and beyond into the
Upper Midwest/Northern Plains. An active pattern is evident
upstream -- a deep ~553 dam low is spinning over/near the
Oklahoma Panhandle, another ridge axis wraps around the back of
that low from from Central California to the Northern Rockies,
and second trough axis over the Pacific dips from Alaska
southward to well off the California Coast. Dropping down to the
surface, eastern Kentucky will initially be under the influence
of an ~1028 mb high near/over Lake Superior. A stalled boundary is
draped to our south from off the Outer Banks, around the southern
portions of the Tennessee River basin, across Arklatex and then
beyond as an occluded front to an ~1007 mb surface low near/over
the Oklahoma Panhandle.
The ridge aloft will shift east through the day on Saturday, taking
the surface high pressure to over the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast.
Meanwhile, the nearly vertically stacked low in the vicinity of
the Oklahoma Panhandle will track northeastward to near/over
Omaha, Nebraska by Saturday evening. This low's warm conveyor
belt jet will push the stationary boundary back north across
Kentucky as a warm front on Saturday night/Sunday morning. PWATs
exceeding the 90th percentile, relative to climo, will surge
northeastward across our area within the low's warm sector on
Sunday until the surface low reaches the Great Lakes and drags a
trailing cold front across Sunday evening and night. Broad ridging
both aloft and at the surface builds in the central CONUS behind
the cold front on Monday, before shifting east and amplifying/
strengthening through mid-week as the next high amplitude longwave
trough digs deeply across the Western CONUS. Guidance suggests
that a potent surface low develops in the lee of the Central
Rockies Tuesday night ahead of the trough and then rapidly
intensifies as it tracks toward Lake Superior on Wednesday. A more
intense southerly warm conveyor belt jet is likely to develop
ahead of the low's cold front and spread across the Commonwealth
at the end of the forecast period.
The sensible weather will start off fair and seasonably cool on
Friday night with lows ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Temperatures surge back to the mid 60s to lower 70s (north to south)
on Saturday even though clouds increase again ahead of the cold
front. Shower chances rise from the west on Saturday night
yielding to a several hour period of likely to widespread PoPs on
Sunday as the cold front approaches. Marginal instability may be
sufficient for a few rumbles of thunder during the day and into
the evening until the cold front passes Sunday night. Widespread
rainfall amounts of between 0.5 and 1.0 inches are expected,
though locally higher and lower amounts cannot be ruled out at
some locations. A few light showers could linger on Monday,
especially in the southeast, but generally drier conditions
prevail. Dry weather continues on Tuesday. Rain chances then rise
again Wednesday as the next storm system approaches. Daily high
temperatures don't vary much, generally ranging from the mid 60s
to lower 70s from Sunday through Wednesday. Meanwhile, nighttime
lows will depend upon cloud cover -- mid 40s to mid 50s on
Saturday night, 50s on Sunday night, and mainly 40s on Monday and
Tuesday nights.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST THU NOV 7 2024
Widespread IFR conditions may briefly improve to low-MVFR
conditions for a period later this afternoon, but generally IFR
conditions return tonight and persist until clearing takes place
from north to south with a secondary cold front. At least partial
clearing will occur from north to south overnight, occurring
earliest at KSYM and then at the other TAF sites around 11z-12z
Friday. Any locations that clear before 12z will be susceptible
to fog formation, especially in river valleys, with KSYM the most
likely to see fog due to higher confidence in clearing occurring
before then. VFR conditions are then expected through the
remainder of the TAF period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 12:27 PM EST---------------
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