JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 4:00 AM EST347
FXUS63 KJKL 070900
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
400 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will continue through the middle of
next week.
- Widespread measurable rainfall occurs through Thursday - with
highest amounts in the Bluegrass Region and lesser in the far
southeast.
- Another widespread rain event with higher rainfall potential
will affect the area during the later part of the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1055 PM EST WED NOV 6 2024
Just a little bit of change to the forecast with the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. Did also
beef up the fog in the southwest and included some of the latest
CAMs data for the PoPs and thunder chances through the rest of the
night as the convection is starting to look more conducive to
produce some thunder. These adjustments have been sent to the
NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and
SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EST WED NOV 6 2024
00Z sfc analysis shows a wavy and diffuse cold front laying
across the northwest portion of the area. This is showing a lull
in activity currently with just a few pocket of showers noted
through eastern Kentucky but most places dry. However, most of the
CAMs do suggest that this boundary becomes more active towards
midnight and beyond when more robust convection develops with even
a thunderstorm or two possible. Otherwise, skies are mostly
cloudy with mild conditions in place with temperatures generally
in the mid to upper 60s. Meanwhile, amid light winds, dewpoints
are elevated in the lower 60s most places making for a muggy
night. Have updated the grids to align the PoP and thunder chances
with the latest CAMs ideas as well as to include the current obs
and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have been
sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the
zones and SAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 242 PM EST WED NOV 6 2024
Weather front continues to slowly trudge southeast across the area,
the southwestern part will actually move a bit north through
tonight, while the northern part will continue to move east. This
will mean the front will move from a southwest-northeast orientation
to an almost west-east orientation by tonight and tomorrow.
Upper ridging builds to the south and then the west through the
short-term period, which will cause the upper flow to transition
from southwesterly today to westerly or west-northwesterly by Friday
morning. At the surface, after the initial front exits southeast
late tomorrow, a second cold front will move southeast across the
state, and by sunrise Friday morning (the end of the short-term
period) will be moving across southeastern Kentucky.
As for sensible weather, showers will continue through much of the
rest of the afternoon and continue through tonight, with unusually
mild temperatures for early November expected during this time. As
the second front arrives Thursday night, light rain or showers are
again possible but with little in the way of measurable rain, with
clouds lingering through much of the night Thursday night. The
temperature forecast Thursday night is a bit tricky especially in
the north as there is uncertainty on if there is any clearing toward
the Interstate 64 corridor before sunrise, which could impact how
cold it gets Friday morning. Nevertheless, temperatures will trend
lower through the period, but still remain above normal.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM EST THU NOV 7 2024
The 07/00z model suite is in good agreement on the synoptic scale
features through the forecast period through the period though
there are some timing and intensity differences. The 500H
analysis on Friday evening shows a departing trough over the
Northeastern CONUS/Eastern Canada. An ~590 dam high is situated
over Florida with a negatively-tilted ridge extending
northwestward across the Lower Ohio Valley and beyond into the
Upper Midwest/Northern Plains. An active pattern is evident
upstream -- a deep ~553 dam low is spinning over/near the
Oklahoma Panhandle, another ridge axis wraps around the back of
that low from from Central California to the Northern Rockies,
and second trough axis over the Pacific dips from Alaska
southward to well off the California Coast. Dropping down to the
surface, eastern Kentucky will initially be under the influence
of an ~1028 mb high near/over Lake Superior. A stalled boundary is
draped to our south from off the Outer Banks, around the southern
portions of the Tennessee River basin, across Arklatex and then
beyond as an occluded front to an ~1007 mb surface low near/over
the Oklahoma Panhandle.
The ridge aloft will shift east through the day on Saturday, taking
the surface high pressure to over the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast.
Meanwhile, the nearly vertically stacked low in the vicinity of
the Oklahoma Panhandle will track northeastward to near/over
Omaha, Nebraska by Saturday evening. This low's warm conveyor
belt jet will push the stationary boundary back north across
Kentucky as a warm front on Saturday night/Sunday morning. PWATs
exceeding the 90th percentile, relative to climo, will surge
northeastward across our area within the low's warm sector on
Sunday until the surface low reaches the Great Lakes and drags a
trailing cold front across Sunday evening and night. Broad ridging
both aloft and at the surface builds in the central CONUS behind
the cold front on Monday, before shifting east and amplifying/
strengthening through mid-week as the next high amplitude longwave
trough digs deeply across the Western CONUS. Guidance suggests
that a potent surface low develops in the lee of the Central
Rockies Tuesday night ahead of the trough and then rapidly
intensifies as it tracks toward Lake Superior on Wednesday. A more
intense southerly warm conveyor belt jet is likely to develop
ahead of the low's cold front and spread across the Commonwealth
at the end of the forecast period.
The sensible weather will start off fair and seasonably cool on
Friday night with lows ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Temperatures surge back to the mid 60s to lower 70s (north to south)
on Saturday even though clouds increase again ahead of the cold
front. Shower chances rise from the west on Saturday night
yielding to a several hour period of likely to widespread PoPs on
Sunday as the cold front approaches. Marginal instability may be
sufficient for a few rumbles of thunder during the day and into
the evening until the cold front passes Sunday night. Widespread
rainfall amounts of between 0.5 and 1.0 inches are expected,
though locally higher and lower amounts cannot be ruled out at
some locations. A few light showers could linger on Monday,
especially in the southeast, but generally drier conditions
prevail. Dry weather continues on Tuesday. Rain chances then rise
again Wednesday as the next storm system approaches. Daily high
temperatures don't vary much, generally ranging from the mid 60s
to lower 70s from Sunday through Wednesday. Meanwhile, nighttime
lows will depend upon cloud cover -- mid 40s to mid 50s on
Saturday night, 50s on Sunday night, and mainly 40s on Monday and
Tuesday nights.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EST THU NOV 7 2024
A cold front is currently entering the forecast area from the
northwest, with showers occurring near it. Conditions varied
widely from IFR (or worse) to VFR. Overall deterioration is
forecast overnight and early Thursday morning, with widespread IFR
or worse conditions forecast for most of the area, along with many
showers. Improvement should occur on Thursday, with showers
tapering to drizzle and conditions becoming mainly MVFR by
evening.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 4:00 AM EST---------------
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