ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 4:04 AM EST562
FXUS61 KILN 060904
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
404 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring widespread showers today. A few showers
may linger on Thursday as the boundary stalls near the Ohio
River. Dry weather takes over areawide on Friday as high
pressure settles over the Great Lakes.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold front with showers is moving through western portions of
the ILN FA. Radar trends suggest all locations will observe
showers by mid morning as the front progresses east. With the
front speeding up for a few hours, showers should end by this
afternoon in most areas, except over southeast counties where a
ripple of low pressure will result in enhanced lift and moisture
convergence. An inch of rain may be measured by the end of
today. Winds gusting over 20 knots early will subside as the
front weakens and the pressure gradient loosens. Still expecting
above normal temperatures, though they will be cooler than
record readings on Tuesday. Forecast highs range from the upper
60s northwest up to the mid 70s southeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The weakened front will be located south of the Ohio River.
While most locations will have dry weather, a chance of showers
persists in southern locations closer to the front and its
lingering moisture. Though it will become noticeably cooler,
temperatures will stay above normal, with lows tonight in the
mid 40s to mid 50s, followed by highs on Thursday in the upper
50s to mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will prevail through the end of the week. So it will
be dry with temperatures just a bit above normal. Low pressure will
track northeast through the Plains into the Great Lakes over the
weekend. A warm front extending southeast of the low will lift
across the region Saturday night. This will be followed by a cold
front late Sunday into Sunday night. Showers will occur as these
front move across the region. Temperatures will be warmer,
especially nighttime lows. But then it will dry out on Monday as
high pressure builds in with dry conditions continuing into Tuesday
as the high moves east. Not much of a change in airmass with
temperatures about 10 degrees above normal for the early part of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold front and associated moisture and wind trends will affect
aviation. Front over Indiana will be moving to Ohio this
morning, bringing showers. Once the lower levels of the
atmosphere reach saturation, ceilings will drop to MVFR and then
IFR, with MVFR visibilities. Winds gusting around 20 knots at
the start will subside overnight because the pressure gradient
and low level jet are weakening. Frontal movement appears slow
at this point but models suggest some acceleration that will
bring and end to showers by about 15z. Residual low level
moisture may allow MVFR ceilings to persist to 00z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs may persist into Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Coniglio
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 4:04 AM EST---------------
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