ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 6:46 PM EST542
FXUS61 KILN 052346
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
646 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread showers are expected tonight into Wednesday as a
front moves in. Some rain lingers Thursday behind the front
before dry weather returns on Friday with high pressure. The
next chance of rain arrives Sunday or Monday as another cold
front moves into the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Late this evening, the band of showers currently to our west may
lose some coverage and intensity, especially on the eastern
side. However, additional development is expected along the
frontal boundary, which is currently located in Illinois. A
southwest to northeast aligned band will be moving through the
area throughout the early morning hours, resulting in a slow
Wednesday morning commute.
Due to the front being so far to the west, overnight
temperatures will remain quite warm (60s), even with the rain
occurring.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The front attempts to push into the area Wednesday morning, but
with mid-level ridge increasing in intensity, the front will
only make gradual advancements to the east throughout the day.
Even though the front is still located along the OH/IN border in
the morning, push of the rain is focused along and southeast of
the I-71 corridor. The front will pivot from the border to
roughly the I-71 corridor. Additional development should be
expected along the front during the afternoon, and even a few
thunderstorms can't be ruled out. The biggest limiting factor
will be the lack of strong forcing throughout the mid-levels.
Temperatures are still quite warm for early November with 60s
and lower 70s through the afternoon. Eventually, "cooler" air
will attempt to filter southward as northerly flow increases
overnight.
PoPs increase across the southern half of the area Wednesday
night as a strengthening LLJ pushes another surge of moisture
northward against the stalled frontal boundary. The combination
of these rainfall events may lead to corridors of 1 to 2+" for
portions of northern Kentucky, southeast Indiana and southern
Ohio.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mid levels characterized by a split flow regime at the
beginning of the long term forecast period. Surface high
pressure to stretch across the Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes
in a region of confluence aloft. This high will offer mainly dry
weather for the end of the week.
Focus shifts to a southern stream mid level low that ejects
northeast across the Central Plains Saturday and the Upper MS
Valley/Great Lakes Sunday.
This will take surface low pressure well north of the region
with a trailing front pushing through the area late Sunday into
Sunday night. Continue to observed model solution spread in the
track of the upper feature and some differences in the frontal
timing across the area. This will influence how quickly the next
chance of showers will get into the region.
At this time, Saturday looks to be mainly dry, although cannot
rule out some precipitation spreading in from the southwest late
in the day. Then expect a fairly wet Saturday night into Sunday
with some lighter showers lingering into Sunday night and
perhaps even into Monday. High pressure builds back into the
region later Monday into Tuesday with a return to dry weather.
Temperatures will remain above normal with highs generally in
the 60s through the period. Lows will be in the 40s on Thursday
and Friday nights, with clouds and precipitation resulting in
somewhat warmer lows in the 50s Saturday night and Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers later this evening and overnight along and ahead of a
slow- moving front will be accompanied by lowering ceilings.
Generally, the terminals should have MVFR cloud bases below
2,000 feet, but can't rule out some temporary IFR stratus.
For visibility, rain should be rather light, so only have short
periods in the heart of the band going to MVFR restrictions.
Will continue to monitor observation and radar trends going into
the 06Z issuance.
Ceilings will be slow to lift on Wednesday. High-res ensemble
guidance shows a general decrease in low cloud probabilities
heading into the afternoon, so have trended to VFR late in the
period.
The boundary will return toward the north as a warm front during
the 30-hour CVG TAF period, so trended ceilings back down
Wednesday night.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs may persist into Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...McGinnis
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 6:46 PM EST---------------
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