CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 6:15 AM EST975
FXUS61 KCLE 061115
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
615 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the local area today and exit to
the southeast tonight. High pressure will build into the Great
Lakes region on Thursday and remain through Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The rain is generally east of the Ohio State Route 4 corridor
(Sandusky to Bucyrus) with dry but cloudy conditions to the
west. This batch of rain will move out and some scattered rain
showers are still expected ahead of the main cold front later
this morning into the afternoon.
Previous Discussion...
A band of rain is moving across the forecast area this morning
well ahead of a cold front with good lift across the region.
Some brief 30 to 40 mph wind gusts are being noted with the
showers as they move across the region, but overall, the showers
are just bringing some refreshing rain. Rainfall amounts should
remain under 0.50" for today. The main cold front lags well
behind the rain and could generate some additional scattered
showers later this morning into the afternoon hours and have
some PoPs behind this main band. Otherwise, high pressure should
enter behind the front for tonight into Thursday. While there
will be some colder air into the region, the temperatures are
way too marginal for any meaningful lake effect but perhaps just
some extra cloud cover. The surface high will allow for another
period with dry weather. High temperatures for today are likely
being achieved this morning and will be in the 60s to lower
70s. Temperatures return toward seasonable values for tonight
into tomorrow, but should still feel pleasant.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions will continue through the bulk of the short term
period as an elongated area of high pressure remains over the
Midwest and Great Lakes regions. By Saturday, an upper level low
will eject out of the western CONUS and move toward the Upper
Midwest. The system has slowed down slightly, but still have PoPs
gradually increasing from west to east overnight Saturday.
Cooler overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 30s under a
mainly clear sky Thursday and Friday night. Slightly warmer
overnight lows Saturday night in the 40s areawide. High temperatures
Friday and Saturday will rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s, a few
degrees warmer than normal for this time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weather pattern turns unsettled in the long term as the
aforementioned upper low lifts across the region. Plenty of moisture
will be available as PWATs rise into the 1.00-1.25 inch range by
Sunday giving way to beneficial rainfall amounts between 0.25-0.50+
inches Sunday into Monday. Weak high pressure attempts to build back
in late Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures remain above normal
through the long term with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
The main batch of rain with some brief MVFR is about halfway
through the airspace right now. Rain will continue east with a
mix of low VFR to MVFR ceilings and brief MVFR visibility.
Behind the rain, some MVFR to even IFR ceilings are moving into
the region. Believe that the IFR is fleeting but the MVFR should
spread across the area ahead of a cold front and have reflected
this in the TAFs. Some additional scattered shower activity is
also expected ahead of the cold front and have some VCSH to
reflect those chances. The cold front will move through and
ceilings should lift to VFR. Southwest winds are already
starting to settle this morning and will continue to decrease
and veer to the west then northwest with the cold frontal
passage.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with rain and low ceilings on Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Cold front will continue to cross the lake from west to east this
morning and afternoon. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
through 12Z (7 AM) this morning. Southerly winds 15-25 knots
decrease to 10-15 knots while turning westerly behind the front this
afternoon. A ridge of high pressure builds over the lake tonight
through Saturday. Winds will favor a northerly component Wednesday
evening through Friday morning remaining between 10 and 15 knots.
Northwesterly to westerly winds will increase to 12-18 knots Friday
as the ridge builds east over the lake. As the high exits to the
east on Saturday, winds turn northeasterly while decreasing below 10
knots.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Iverson
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 6:15 AM EST---------------
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