LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 11:46 PM CST ...NEW AVIATION...212
FXUS64 KLIX 050546 AAB
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1146 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
...NEW AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 235 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
We are stuck in an interesting pattern for this time of year that is
holding our daytime highs somewhat warmer than normal, normal being
in the low to mid 70s. This is due to the persistence of the Bermuda
high reaching just far enough west to affect us and hold the effects
of a trough centered over the western US just west of us. Overall
flow around these systems is from the south and southeast bringing
enough Gulf moisture into the area to pop up light, isolated showers
that are moving fast enough so that any rain received is almost more
of a nuisance. The biggest impact that this setup bring is winds
blowing onshore and pushing normal tide levels up and causing
coastal flooding especially on south and east facing shores. Tonight
will see coastal waters one more cycle of tides nearly as high as
last night and so Coastal Flood Warning has been extended to Bay St.
Louis to Shell Beach, but winds will decrease to around 10kt and
tide levels decrease to just under flooding levels.
For information only...Today, the tropical system in the Caribbean
rapidly developed into Tropical Depression 18 and as of 3pm CST has
become Tropical Storm Rafael. Rafael is not impacting the northern
Gulf coast at this time...see more in the Long Term section below.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 235 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
The item of interest for the long term is that Tropical Storm Rafael
is expected to build to a category 2 strength storm with sustained
winds up to 100mph during its time in the Caribbean. The short term
of this tropical fcast has more confidence than the extended. The
troughing out west of the areas today is what will be responsible
for drawing this system northward over the next few days. This
trough then lifts and moves east leaving this system behind as high
pressure builds in over it. Once it moves into the Gulf and
especially the northern Gulf wind shear, dry air, and relatively
cooler Gulf waters are expected to kill off Rafael. As stated in
the 3pm CST NHC update "It is too soon to determine what, if any,
impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf
coast." As usual, we will continue to monitor updates to the
system and will forward them as necessary.
Beyond the interest in Rafael, we can expect conditions to stay
largely the same as they have been, with slight if any chances of
rain and high and low temperatures roughly ten degrees above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
More low stratus will be possible overnight. Improvement will
occur around or shortly after sunrise. Continued and added
additional PROB30s respectively for SHRA potential this
afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the day with
a slightly weaker southerly low level flow. More low stratus could
develop again later tonight toward the end of the cycle leading to
MVFR after 00z Wednesday. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
SE winds of 20-25kt with higher gusts will begin to ease a bit this
evening for all marine areas into the 10kt range. SCA for all
marine areas will end 00Z as winds decrease. Just as a note,
remember that these winds have nothing to do with tropical storm
Rafael over the Caribbean. Any impacts from Rafael will be at the
end of the work week into the weekend. Anything specific impacts will
need to to be resolved as we get closer to the event.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 83 68 82 67 / 10 10 30 20
BTR 88 73 87 72 / 0 10 40 20
ASD 84 70 85 68 / 10 10 10 10
MSY 86 73 85 71 / 10 10 10 0
GPT 81 71 82 69 / 20 0 10 10
PQL 85 69 87 68 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for LAZ058-060-
066>070-077-080-082-084-086>088.
Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM CST Tuesday for LAZ076-078.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ087-088.
Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ086.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...DS
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 11:46 PM CST ...NEW AVIATION...---------------
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