BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 9:53 PM EST384
FXUS61 KBOX 040253
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
953 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to govern our weather pattern this
weekend bringing dry weather and cooler than normal temperatures.
Above normal temperatures expected Tuesday and Wednesday with windy
conditions. A cold front moves through by Thursday with a few
showers/sprinkles possible Wednesday night. Cooler, but still
slightly above normal temperatures Thursday and Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
10 PM Update:
No major changes made to the forecast overnight. Some of the
HREF members indicate a low chance for showers or snow showers
in the high terrain early tomorrow morning. If any rain or snow
does fall, it will be very light, likely not accumulating more
then a trace.
Previous discussion.
Center of strong 1034 mb high pressure area was located near Ottawa
ON this afternoon, bringing continued dry weather and light
northerly to northeast winds. Temperatures were seasonable in the
mid 40s to lower 50s under mostly clear skies, although there was
still some continued stratocumulus over the South Shore, Cape and
Islands.
High pressure will continue to move southeast into interior Southern
New England tonight. With clear skies, light winds and a very dry
airmass favoring optimal radiational cooling, strong falls in hourly
temps are expected after sundown. Though we will see an increasing
coverage of high clouds from west to east tonight, it shouldn't
permit strong cooling overnight. Looking at a chilly night with lows
in the upper teens to lower 20s in northwest MA, the low to mid 20s
around eastern CT, around I-495 in eastern MA, with mid 30s for the
cities, Cape and Islands.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 PM Update:
Monday:
High pressure moves off the coast early on Mon, which will allow for
a southeast to southerly flow to return to the region. Unlike the
past several days where sunny skies have predominated, Mon looks to
feature filtered sun at best with a canopy of mid to high clouds,
although most areas should trend toward overcast by sundown. The
modest southerly winds will also bring an increase in dewpoint temps
back into the 30s to low 40s from north to south. Highs in the lower
to mid 50s.
Monday Night:
A warm front will be passing to our north on Mon evening. While the
best chance for rain passes well to our north Mon night, it will
bring overcast skies along with southerly winds around 10 mph. 925-
850 mb temps also steadily warm to around +8 to +10C in the face of
strong warm advection. This is a scenario where low temperatures
occur early in the night (in the lower to mid 40s), then rise into
the upper 40s to the lower 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tuesday and Wednesday:
Tuesday, the upper level ridge axis shifts east of the region.
Ridging weakens in response to an approaching shortwave trough to
the west. A low level jet begins to shift into southern New England
later in the day. With some mixing this will transport down breezier
SW winds with gusts 20-30 mph in the afternoon. With a weak wave or
two in the flow, ensemble guidance shows marginal moisture in the
mid-levels. This will bring additional cloud cover and limit mixing
heights to some extent. Weak warm air advection overnight into early
Tuesday brings in warmer 850mb temperatures. This will support highs
rising back into the 60s with even a shot at 70 in some spots. There
is some uncertainty in the dewpoints. NBM has values in the mid-
upper 50s, but given a dry surface, values may trend slightly drier.
Made some minor adjustments to dewpoints, mainly for MA (except SE
MA). The low level jet positions across southern New England
overnight into Wednesday morning. This should continue gusty winds
over the waters bleeding into the Cape and Islands with elevated
winds elsewhere overnight.
Similar conditions for Wednesday with breezy conditions. This is
looking like another day of above normal temperatures, with highs
potentially even a degree or two warmer than Tuesday. The GFS trends
a bit warmer than the ECMWF for highs likely owing to better mixing.
If it ends up better mixed and drier, combined with SW flow this
would give some locations a shot at approaching some
records...again. Highs will range in the upper 60s to low 70s,
potentially mid 70s in some locations.
A weak shortwave moves through Wednesday evening; however, most
guidance has leaned on the drier side with lacking upper level
support. Can't rule out lower coverage/isolated showers or sprinkles
early evening.
Thursday and onward:
A weak cold front moves through by Thursday. Flow aloft stays zonal
with W/WNW flow. This will bring in a cooler airmass than the last
few days; however, still a bit above normal overall. Highs range in
the 60s.
Ensemble guidance indicates another system dropping south from
Canada across northern Maine. Still fuzzy in the details such as
timing, but it there is a consensus that it will be lacking
moisture.
For the weekend, ensemble guidance shows a general consensus with an
upper low exiting the Intermountain west and a weak ridge settled
just south of southern New England. Ensemble means lift it across
the Great Lakes while bringing a plume of elevated moisture with it.
Plenty of uncertainty this far out, but we'll keep monitoring it for
a chance at rainfall to the region.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00Z TAF Update:
Tonight: High confidence.
VFR, with increasing coverage of high clouds toward early Mon
AM. Light N/NW winds less than 10 kts. Winds become more ENE
near the eastern coast toward daybreak.
Monday: High confidence.
VFR, though with a SCT-OVC midlevel cloud deck. Late in the day,
there could be some lower VFR/borderline MVFR stratus near the
south coast with returning moisture. Light N/NE winds shift to
SE around mid morning (~14-16z) around 4-8 kt, then becoming
SSE/S by late afternoon.
Monday Night: Moderate confidence.
Ceilings steadily lower into at least the lower-VFR to MVFR
range. Low prob of IFR with better chance in the interior. S
winds increase to around 10 kt, with potential for LLWS
overnight into early Tue AM.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas
MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance RA.
Thursday through Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR
possible. Slight chance RA.
Friday: Breezy. Slight chance RA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tranquil marine weather conditions are expected through Monday
under strong high pressure. Light northeast winds tonight become
SE to S on Monday with speeds around 5-10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less
on all waters. Dry weather is expected.
For Monday night...southerly winds increase to around 10-15 kt
with gusts to 20 kt. Dry weather still expected.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.
Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.
Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance
of rain.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
415 PM Update:
The protracted stretch of dry weather will continue to lead to
elevated concerns for wildfire development until we can get a
substantial wetting rain event. Relative humidities should range
around 30 percent today with light north winds.
With a lack of significant rain expected over the next several days,
Special Weather Statements are likely to be needed through next week
coinciding with periods where winds are on the light side.
Consideration will be given toward red flag headlines to highlight a
greater threat for wildfire development and spread when and where
there are sufficiently strong enough winds. Tuesday and Wednesday
could meet that criterion pending wind speeds, but those decisions
will be coordinated beforehand with our state fire weather
partners.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Previous Record highs for Wednesday, November 6th
Boston: 76F set in 2022
Hartford: 76F set in 2022
Providence: 75F set in 2022
Worcester: 72F set in 2022
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Mensch
NEAR TERM...Loconto/KP
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...Loconto/Mensch
MARINE...Loconto/Mensch
FIRE WEATHER...Loconto/Mensch
CLIMATE...
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 9:53 PM EST----------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
