BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 6:00 AM EST850
FXUS61 KBOX 031100
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
600 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to govern our weather pattern this
weekend bringing dry weather and cooler than normal temperatures.
Well above normal temperatures and windy on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Another cold front moves through Thursday and Friday, but temps only
fall back into the 60s.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Nighttime satellite imagery shows clear skies which, together with
light winds across the region will allow for temps to continue to
drop over the next several hours into the 20s and low 30s. This is
thanks to the sprawling surface high pressure which becomes centered
over northern New England today. As a result dry and sunny weather
is expected once again as PWATs drop near a quarter inch. After a
very cold start, temperatures only reach the low to mid 50s today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
An even colder night is in store Sunday night as the boundary layer
decouples and clear skies allow for very good radiational cooling.
Lows will dip well into the 20s inland, 30s along the coast. Monday
the high pressure dips further into the Gulf of Maine turning winds
out of the southeast. This pulls in low level moisture higher up
moisture moves in on NW upper level winds; so, expect much more
cloudcover on Monday compared to the weekend. The airmass begins to
moderate under a building ridge, so temperatures will warm into the
mid to upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday and Wednesday.
The ridge axis moves east Tuesday before a weakening shortwave moves
through Wednesday. Surface flow turns SE, and winds become gusty
again as a 40-50 knot 925mb LLJ moves overhead Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Gusts of 20-30mph are possible starting Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. The Tuesday night period
would have the highest potential for 30-40mph gusts, but the
nocturnal inversion should help keep gusts below 30mph.
Temperatures on Tuesday rise well above normal into the upper 60s to
low 70s. High temperatures peak on Wednesday in the mid to upper
70s and possibly flirt with record values. Dewpoints will also be
on the rise Tuesday and Wednesday into the low to mid-50s. As for
precipitation chances, guidance remains dry as the lack of more
significant moisture and upper-level forcing continues to make it
difficult for SNE to see beneficial rain accumulations.
Thursday and Friday
Another cold front looks to move through on Thursday, helping
moderate temperatures back down into the 60s but still above normal
for early November. Winds don't look quite as gusty on Thursday as
high pressure helps weaken the pressure gradient. Guidance hints at
a dry clipper system starting to drop out of Canada on Friday. The
pressure gradient tightens again, bringing another round of gusty
westerly winds.
Saturday and Beyond
Global guidance is in surprisingly good agreement today on a strong
shortwave exiting the Rockies and moving towards the Great Lakes and
the Northeast US. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty on the
exact path this storm system takes, but it could lead to more
substantial precipitation in the region sometime next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
12Z TAF Update:
Today: High confidence.
VFR. Light NW to N winds.
Tonight: High confidence.
VFR. Winds turn ENE near the eastern MA coast Sunday evening,
otherwise light N winds.
Monday: High confidence.
VFR. S winds 5-10 kts.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday through Monday/
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas
MVFR possible. Breezy.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tranquil marine weather conditions are expected through Monday
under strong high pressure. Seas 3 ft or less on all waters.
Dry weather is expected.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The protracted stretch of dry weather will continue to lead to
elevated concerns for wildfire development until we can get a
substantial wetting rain event. Relative humidities should range
around 30 percent today with light north winds.
With a lack of significant rain expected over the next several days,
Special Weather Statements are likely to be needed through next week
coinciding with periods where winds are on the light side.
Consideration will be given toward red flag headlines to highlight a
greater threat for wildfire development and spread when and where
there are sufficiently strong enough winds. Tuesday and Wednesday
could meet that criterion pending wind speeds, but those decisions
will be coordinated beforehand with our state fire weather partners.
CLIMATE
Previous Record highs for Wednesday, November 6th
Boston: 76F set in 2022
Hartford: 76F set in 2022
Providence: 75F set in 2022
Worcester: 72F set in 2022
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW/KP
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...BW/KP
MARINE...BW/KP
FIRE WEATHER...BW/KP
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 6:00 AM EST----------------
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