IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 2:57 PM EST868
FXUS63 KIND 051957
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
257 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy through late tonight
- Widespread showers expected with isolated storms possible late
today into tonight
- Warmer than normal temperatures will continue into the weekend...
rain chances to return to entire region Saturday-Sunday
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 257 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
Though quite breezy much of the day, cloud cover has largely helped
to limit insolation and thus boundary layer mixing, keeping peak
wind gusts in the 30-40 MPH range aside from a few rare exceptions
in the low 40s.
The leading edge of the prefrontal rain band has begun to move into
central Indiana in the last hour or so, and this will slowly make
its way across the region this afternoon into tonight as the front
does the same. Precipitation chances will taper off from northwest
to southeast late tonight into Wednesday morning.
A few rumbles of thunder will be possible at times, primarily across
the southern portion of the area this afternoon and evening where a
few hundred Joules of MUCAPE are expected. Cannot rule out these
stronger showers/isolated storms briefly mixing down some stronger
wind gusts as strong as 45-50 MPH, but for the most part, a brief
enhancement of the gusts to around 40 should be the highest most
areas see.
Some high resolution models indicate potential for a slightly more
organized pre-frontal convective line this evening, but with already
meager instability unlikely to significantly improve, any
significant threat beyond that described above appears fairly
unlikely.
Wind gusts will gradually diminish once the front begins to sweep
through the area late this evening into the overnight.
Cloud cover will likely persist well into the day on Wednesday at
least, as a developing subsidence inversion traps lingering low
level moisture.
Blend numbers appeared fairly reasonable for low temperatures
tonight and highs Wednesday - slightly weaker cold advection and
cloud cover should keep lows in the low 50s to low 60s across the
area tonight, and highs Wednesday will recover into the 60s, though
how far into the 60s will likely be a function of the persistence of
the aforementioned low cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 257 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
Ridging an anomalously positive mean heights will remain across the
east and resurges across Canada later this week. Concurrently, a
closed southern stream low will drift northeast. These are notorious
for greater ensemble spread than their open wave counterparts, and
so we continue to see a dipole in GEFS and EPS camps with only
minimal overlap. The EPS-weighted cluster is further north, while
the GEFS-weighted cluster is faster and further south. This has
implications for precipitation timing late Friday into the weekend.
It appears a 6-12 hour window is when most of the rain will fall,
but to account for all reasonable scenarios our window of higher
precipitation probabilities span a longer time frame Saturday night
through Sunday in the forecast for now. We will narrow this up as
forecast uncertainty decreases later this week.
There has been a fairly substantial shift toward a later onset, with
even GEFS mean lagging relative to earlier model cycles. So, if the
forecast trends one way or another it is most likely to trend slower
with lesser amounts (multi-model ensemble mean has around 0.50-1.00
now), with perhaps a later onset Saturday or Saturday evening of
rain. Thunder again seems unlikely given displacement of steeper
midlevel lapse rates to our northwest.
Chaos in the ensembles grows further into early next week and leads
to uncertainty with regards to timing/magnitude of transient waves
that could bring additional precipitation. Low probabilities for
now. High confidence in the background synoptic pattern continuing
to feature above normal temperatures relative to early November
climatology. This appears to continue into the Day 8-14 period as
well, with eastern ridging and a solid signal for above normal
temperatures, along with average to above average precipitation
chances.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1242 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
Impacts:
- Sustained wind 17-22KT with gusts 30-35KT gradually diminishing
this evening
- Band of showers with cold frontal passage this afternoon into
tonight
- MVFR ceilings with showers and after frontal passage, brief IFR
periods possible
Discussion:
A strong pressure gradient accompanying a frontal system impinging
upon the area will continue to promote strong gusty winds through
today into this evening. Gusts will be strongest this afternoon, as
high as 30-35KT at times, with sustained winds as high as 17-22KT.
Speeds will gradually diminish with time, with gusts coming to an
end by late this evening into the early overnight.
Widespread MVFR ceilings in prefrontal showers and after frontal
passage are expected late this evening into Wednesday, though
fluctuations are likely at times. Visibilities may drop to MVFR at
times, and brief periods of IFR conditions cannot entirely be ruled
out in the strongest showers. A rumble of thunder is possible, but
far too unlikely for inclusion in the TAF.
Winds will be southerly or southwesterly until quickly shifting
westerly with frontal passage. MVFR ceilings are likely to persist
beyond frontal passage into at least the morning hours on Wednesday.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...Nield
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 2:57 PM EST---------------
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