CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 6:59 AM EST802
FXUS61 KCLE 051159
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
659 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over northern Missouri will lift northeast through
the Great Lakes region tonight and extend a cold front across
the local area by Wednesday afternoon. High pressure will build
into the region behind the front for Thursday and remain over
the eastern Great Lakes through Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rain continues to train over Indiana and Michigan but remains
limited in its movement east. Believe the forecast is on track
with dry weather during the daytime hours today. Temperatures
are starting out very warm and well into the 60s. It will be
easy to get into the 70s today for most. Winds are starting to
pick up and will peak this afternoon.
Previous Discussion...
The forecast area will remain in the warm sector of a low
pressure system today. While some clouds will filter in and out
of the region for the first half of the day, temperatures will
remain well above normal (especially since temperatures are near
70 degrees here in the 3 AM hour!). Temperatures exceeded the
mean of guidance yesterday and believe that there will be an
extra degree or two that can be juiced out this afternoon once
some of the clouds advect away from the region. Therefore, will
go with upper 70s and perhaps an 80 degree reaching or two
across the region. Record high temperatures are possible and the
records for today are found below. Winds will remain efficient
in the warm sector today as well with wind gusts in the 30 to 40
mph range expected, mainly during the daytime hours.
A cold front will move east tonight and a band of rain will
move through the region, reaching the I-75 corridor just before
midnight, and spread east. While there is high confidence in
some rain in all locations tonight into Wednesday, the total
rainfall forecast remains low with less than 0.50" QPF
everywhere and most places likely seeing less than 0.25". This
will provide little drought relief but could at least hinder
some of the fire weather potential with a little added moisture
to the one and ten hour fuels.
The front will exit southeast on Wednesday, and the upper ridge
and high pressure seems primed to enter quickly during the
daytime hours on Wednesday. The best rain chances on Wednesday
appear to be the southeastern counties before all locations
trend to dry. While the front will be through the area on
Wednesday afternoon, temperatures will remain elevated in the
60s, or about 10 degrees above normal across the board.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will be southeast of the local area by Wednesday night
with rain showers tapering off across southeastern zones by the
start of the short term. A ridge of high pressure builds east over
the region Thursday and Friday leading to dry conditions to end the
work week. Low temperatures Wednesday night settle in the low to mid
40s. Slightly cooler Thursday and Friday night under a partly cloudy
sky with overnight lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs on
Thursday and Friday will generally range between the upper 50s to
lower 60s each afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Unsettled weather returns this weekend as an upper level low ejects
out of the Rockies and moves toward the Upper Midwest. Still some
differences in the onset of precipitation across both deterministic
models and GEFS members. For now, have precipitation chances
increasing from southwest to northeast during the afternoon and
evening on Saturday. Lingering moisture and surface troughing will
likely keep some precipitation mentions through the remainder of the
long term period.
Afternoon highs through the long term will remain in the upper 50s
to lower 60 degree range. Overnight lows will settle in the mid 40s
to low 50s each night.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions are expected through most of the TAF period.
There are some mid level clouds in the region that will become
more limited in coverage through the day. Southerly winds have
picked up with daybreak and will increase with gusts to 30 to 35
kts. Winds will settle in the evening and could allow for
a LLWS period at KCAK and KYNG with some strong winds still
remaining above the surface this evening. The cold front will
start moving in from the west late in the second half of the TAF
period and have rain and MVFR from west to east with the bulk of
the impacts after 06z. Winds will veer with the cold front
moving through the region.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered rain showers through
Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Tightening pressure gradient ahead of a cold front will allow for
southerly to southwesterly winds 15-25 knots to persist over the
lake through Tuesday night. For now, have Small Craft Advisory
continuing through 12Z Wednesday morning. The cold front crosses
west to east early Wednesday morning into the afternoon with winds
turning westerly immediately behind the front Wednesday afternoon
and eventually northwesterly by Wednesday night while decreasing
below 15 knots. A ridge of high pressure builds east over the Great
Lakes late this week into the weekend. Winds 5-10 knots will favor
a northerly component Thursday and Friday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Near-record warm high temperatures are forecast today, Tuesday,
November 5th. Here are the current records for that date:
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
11-05 76(2022) 76(2015) 77(2022) 78(2022) 79(2022) 78(2022)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Iverson
CLIMATE...
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 6:59 AM EST---------------
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