CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 9:56 PM EST770
FXUS61 KCLE 050256
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
956 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm front clears the Great Lakes this evening as low pressure
deepens across the central plains. A cold front will move
northeastward early Wednesday morning and high pressure will build
in behind by the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
9:30 PM Update...
Removed PoPs in NW PA the rest of the night since the showers
are shifting north, so do not expect anything else to reach the
ground. Also lifted the PoPs out of the Ohio lakeshore counties
an hour or two sooner. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track
6:30 PM Update...
The forecast remains on track for this evening. Light showers in
NW Ohio and along the lakeshore will continue to affect the
region from time to time through about 04Z before the warm front
lifts north and places the entire region in the warm sector.
Gusty S winds will average 15-25 knots another hour or so before
decoupling somewhat, but still expect S winds of 15-20 knots
through the night. This combined with strong warm air advection
will make for a very mild evening and overnight.
Original Discussion...
A warm front continues to push northward past the Great Lakes
through this afternoon and evening. The region has dried out for
the most part, only area with higher PoPs are in the Toledo
region where there is better jet support. PoPs in the Toledo
region will decrease throughout the night and into early Tuesday
morning as the upper level support pushes off to the northeast.
The majority of Tuesday will be dry before PoPs increase ahead
of a cold front that will traverse the region from west to east
Tuesday night. By the end of the period most of the CWA should
see rain, though the system has trended slower in the previous
model runs.
Winds will be southerly today behind the warm front and will be
gusty across the region. Predominant winds will be 15-20 mph with
gusts 25-30 mph and some locations out west can see up to 35 mph.
Moisture in the region is increasing from west to east with the
southerly flow, but the eastern portion will be fairly dry for most
of the day as RH values are in the low 40%. With that, there is an
elevated risk of wildfire spreading in PA along with the far
southeastern counties in our CWA into this evening. Winds will
subside tonight before gusting again on Tuesday ahead of the cold
front as the pressure gradient tightens. Gusts will be 25-30 mph
with the western portion of the CWA seeing 35+ mph at times. Along
the Erie Lakeshore, there will be the potential for 35+ mph gusts as
well do to the downsloping across the elevated terrain in
Northern Pennsylvania.
Temperatures will be well above normal for this time of year due to
the southerly flow bringing in WAA. Temperatures have reached the
mid 70s in the western counties, while the eastern portion are in
the upper 60s. Overnight lows will be fairly mild with lows in the
mid 50s for Eastern Ohio and to lower 60s for Northwest
Pennsylvania. Tuesday will have the chance for record breaking highs
as the lack of cloud cover and the strong southerly flow will allow
for the region to warm up effectively. Highs will be in the mid to
upper 70s, and the climate sites will all be above the all time high
or within a degree or two. More information can be found within the
climate section below.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will slide through the area on Wednesday. Rain showers
will be likely for the eastern half of the CWA, mainly over NEOH and
NWPA during the morning. Showers will gradually taper off from west
to east during the afternoon. High temperatures will range from the
middle to upper 60s on Wednesday. A weak area of high pressure will
build in from the north Wednesday night into Thursday. Skies will be
generally partly cloudy on Thursday with seasonable temperatures in
the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The end of the week looks fairly quiet and dry weather but will turn
unsettled and wet later in the weekend. A large upper level trough
will eject out from the Four Corners region into Central Plains at
the end of this week. High pressure will still be in control of our
weather on Friday with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the
low to mid 60s. Clouds and moisture will be on the increase by
Saturday ahead of an approaching warm front. A strong low pressure
system will track through the Cornbelt Region and Upper Midwest on
Sunday. We will see likely rain chances and windy weather for the
later part of the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR will prevail through the TAF cycle as the region remains in
between a strong ridge along the East Coast and broad trough
over the Plains ejecting a series of shortwaves through the
Mississippi Valley. A few showers will impact NW Ohio around
KTOL through 03Z or so before the warm front lifts farther north
and places the entire region in the warm sector. A stray shower
could also follow the lakeshore into KERI, but confidence was
too low for the TAF. Otherwise, the main story will be gusty S
winds. The S winds will decrease a bit to 15-20 knots tonight,
with occasional gusts to 25 knots, before increasing again
Tuesday. S winds could gust to 30-35 knots from late morning
through the afternoon Tuesday. The winds will gradually decrease
Tuesday evening.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered rain showers Tuesday
night through Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Strong and gusty offshore flow will continue over the lake through
Tuesday night. South to southwest winds 15 to 25 knots with higher
gusts are expected through Tuesday night. The ongoing Small Craft
Advisory will continue until 12z or daybreak on Wednesday morning. A
cold front will move across the lake on Wednesday. Winds will veer
to the west and then northwest 10 to 15 knots during the day
Wednesday. High pressure will build over the lake with lighter winds
through the end of the week. Winds will be 5 to 10 knots from the
north or northeast Thursday and Friday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Near-record warm high temperatures are forecast this Tuesday,
November 5th. Here are the current records for that date:
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
11-05 76(2022) 76(2015) 77(2022) 78(2022) 79(2022) 78(2022)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kennedy
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Kennedy
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Griffin
CLIMATE...
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 9:56 PM EST---------------
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