IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 10:04 AM EST599
FXUS63 KIND 041504
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1004 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer than normal temperatures expected through next weekend
- Rain chances focused over the northwest half of central Indiana
through this evening
- Near record warmth and breezy to windy conditions through Tuesday,
with more widespread showers Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
Another round of rain is moving into the western forecast area this
morning. This will spread northeast into early afternoon. Upped PoPs
northwest and tweaked them elsewhere. An isolated storm is possible
west, but confidence is low at this time in thunder making it into
the area.
Winds have been gusting up to around 30kt ahead of the rain, so
upped wind gusts across the area. KIND VAD winds show 35kt at 925mb
and 50kt at 850mb. HRRR has been showing a swath of 50 plus mph
moving across the far northwestern forecast area into early
afternoon, but it has been overdoing gusts at the current time in
Illinois, lowering confidence in its forecast. Will continue to
monitor closely.
Temperatures in the northwest will be kept down in the rain, so will
have to see if they can warm up to forecast highs. May have to lower
them some back into the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
Areas of light showers and sprinkles are moving northeast across the
forecast area early this morning. Overall amounts have been very
light up to this point...0.01-0.02" at best and focused primarily
over the Wabash Valley. Dry air lingers through about 700mb making
radar returns look more impressive than they actually are. Temps are
mild in the 60s at 07Z.
A highly amplified upper level flow pattern exists across the Lower
48 with a sharpening trough over the Rockies and a strong ridge
centered over the SE U S. An upper low will carve out the trough
over the Rockies before lifting northeast and becoming absorbed in
the mean flow as eastward progression is blocked by the Southeast
ridge. An associated frontal boundary over the central part of the
country will drift east only slowly through tonight as the strong
surface ridge along the East Coast moves little. While progressively
deeper moisture will continue to lift northeast into the region
today...the presence of the ridge to the east will limit overall
rainfall amounts and keep the bulk of any rain focused primarily
across the northwest half of the forecast area.
Through Early This Evening
An initial surge of isentropic lift moved across the area late
Sunday afternoon into the evening and brought pockets of sprinkles
and a few light showers to the northern Wabash Valley. Yet another
area of isentropic lift has moved into the region early this morning
with the added support of a more robust low level jet just west of
the area. This has enabled a broader area of light showers focused
across the western part of the forecast area but as mentioned
above...residual dry air noted in model soundings through the lowest
8-10kft are largely mitigating more widespread rainfall so far. A
subtle eastward shift to the low level jet over the next few hours
should aid in gradual moistening of the boundary layer to allow
for at least the chance for light showers to further develop and
linger throughout the morning. Best rain chances will again be
focused across the northwest half of the forecast area.
After a brief lull midday into early afternoon...another round of
isentropic lift with some deeper forcing aloft will track through the
area before lifting north of the area by this evening with the low
level jet. Will maintain chances for showers and perhaps even a
rumble of thunder peaking during the second half of the afternoon
into early evening. Once again...the rain should largely focus
across the northwest half of the area with lower rain chances
further east where the boundary layer will remain drier and
displaced from the best forcing aloft.
Tonight
Drier air will advect north into the Ohio Valley by late evening
with the surface ridge parked to our east. This will force showers
well off to the north and west of the region overnight leaving
dry...mild and breezy conditions across central Indiana as the
surface pressure gradient tightens yet again. The expansion of 50-
60kt winds at 850mb from the southwest during the predawn hours will
likely lead to an increase in wind gusts at the surface to near 30-
35mph prior to daybreak Tuesday.
Temps...warm weather continues for early November with highs into
the low and mid 70s supported by low level thermals for later today.
With strong warm advection continuing tonight...temperatures are
likely to remain in the 60s throughout the night.
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
Tuesday and Tuesday Night...
The long term will begin with a transition from anomalously high
warmth and humidity for early November courtesy of breezy/windy
southerly flow...to light winds, low humidity, and cooler, yet
continued above normal temperatures. The main feature bringing this
change will be a frontal boundary crossing the region Tuesday night
as the supporting upper-level pattern quickly shifts to a less-
amplified and quasi-zonal west-southwesterly flow.
Tuesday, ahead of the boundary, will feature windy conditions, with
confidence increasing in gusts to 40 mph along/north of the I-70
corridor. Mid-70s should envelope most of central Indiana by early
afternoon...the record high at Indianapolis is 76F, the current
forecast is 75F. Equally notable will be dewpoints around 60F.
And what had been a fluxful forecast for POPs/QPF now appears to be
gaining some certainty, with rain showers ahead of the front most
likely during afternoon and evening hours when a rather narrow
precipitable water maximum around 1.50 inches crosses the region.
The potential for moderate rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 0.90 inches
does exist along/south of I-70...but forcing quickly lifting north
as the system enters Indiana may lead to observations only half as
great. Winds should die down quickly late Tuesday night behind the
slowly departing boundary...with lows closer to 50F by early
Wednesday.
Wednesday through Sunday...
The rest of the work week should exhibit a consistent pattern of
mainly dry conditions and above normal readings as the Midwest is
quietly caught under modest yet broad ridging between systems. A few
showers can be expected through Thursday across far southern zones
that will be closer to the linger frontal boundary stretched along
the Ohio Valley.
The next chance of organized precipitation would accompany what may
be a stacked area of low pressure passing near/northwest of the CWA
this weekend. Less confidence with timing/duration/intensity of
this precipitation opportunity given what should be a cut-off and
slow moving circulation.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 525 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
Impacts:
- Gusty winds through the period
- Non-convective low level wind shear briefly at KLAF this
morning then at all terminals tonight
- Chance for MVFR ceilings at KLAF and possibly at KHUF on Monday
- Rain showers at times through this evening
Discussion:
Showers will focus primarily across the northwest half of central
Indiana today...impacting KHUF and KLAF throughout the day and KIND
at times through mid afternoon. Rain will generally be light with no
visibility restrictions anticipated. Model soundings support MVFR
stratocu expanding into the northern Wabash Valley and across KLAF
and possibly KHUF by mid morning before returning to VFR later this
afternoon. As the surface ridge to the east flexes this evening...
expect most of the rain to shift to the north of the area.
Southerly winds will gust throughout much of the day...peaking at 25
to 30kts at times...before diminishing this evening. Gusts will pick
back up late tonight. Non convective low level wind shear will
linger for a few hours at KLAF this morning. Expect low level wind
shear returns to impact all terminals tonight and early Tuesday.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...Ryan
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 10:04 AM EST---------------
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