LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 9:31 PM EST251
FXUS63 KLMK 050231
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
931 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Unseasonably warm temperatures could result in record warm lows
and record highs tomorrow afternoon.
* Gusty winds of 25-30 mph Tuesday.
* Widespread rain with a cold front arrives late Tuesday into
Wednesday.
* Above normal temperatures and intermittent rain chances for the
rest of the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
Currently, breezy south winds over southern Indiana and central
Kentucky are expected to become more gusty in the coming hours as a
cold front moves closer. All this warm air advection will keep
temperatures well above normal tonight as most areas stay in the
60s. Some areas will likely see their record warm minimum
temperature broken. The forecast remains on track with only
increased mid and upper level cloud cover expected during the rest
of the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
The Ohio Valley will be situated between the amplified ridge over
the US east coast and a deep trough over two-thirds of the western
CONUS. This places the region under a strong and steady southerly
flow through the short term. We will remain unseasonably warm by 15-
20 degrees, and gusty winds through the forecast period.
Temperatures have already warmed into the mid/upper 70s as of 19z
with a couple of record highs in jeopardy thanks to the strong
southerly flow. Winds were also gusting to between 20-25 mph with a
few isolated high gusts this afternoon. Thanks to a strong 40-50kt
LLJ that continues to stream northward from the Gulf of Mexico into
the Ohio Valley. The best lifting dynamics remains to our west and
north where we continue to see a few clusters of showers on area
radar. As we go overnight we will remain dry and continued
unseasonably warm. Overnight temperatures will be in the low to mid
60s with another chance at breaking warm minimum temperatures at the
climate sites. Warm min records are 65 (BWG), 63 (FFT), 64 (SDF),
and 63 (LEX) all set in 2017. Winds will also remain breezy between
10-15 mph and gusts of 20-25 mph.
A sfc low is expected to develop over the central plains and work
northeast into the Upper Midwest overnight and through the day
tomorrow. As it works into the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes, it
will help push a cold front into western KY by tomorrow afternoon
and evening. Election day will be similar to today as we will once
again be very warm with highs warming to near 80 degrees. These
temperatures would easily set new record highs for all climate site
for tomorrow. You can see the forecast and record values expected in
the climate section below. As the aforementioned cold front
approaches from the west, pressure gradient over the area will
tighten and we should also get the stronger winds from the LLJ able
to mix down once again during the afternoon. This will result in a
another gusty day with wind gusts around 25 to 30 mph with localized
higher gusts. Rain chances will increase from the west later in the
afternoon as the cold front gets closer. Best chance of showers will
be west of I-65 before the bulk of the activity arrives tomorrow
night.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
Tuesday Night - Thursday Night...
An amplified upper pattern is in place across the CONUS through mid
week, with troughing across the western US and upper ridging
anchored off the southern Atlantic Coast. Our area will remain
situated between these two upper features through mid week, which
will allow for a stalled frontal boundary across our area as it
becomes nearly parallel to the upper flow. Widespread precipitation
is expected Tuesday night thanks to a deep frontogenetical component
beneath the right entrance region of an upper jet. This synoptic
forcing combined with deeper moisture transport from a lingering low
level jet should allow for solid coverage of showers, and perhaps a
few embedded rumbles of thunder. Overall, instability is pretty
meager to non-existent, however may be overcome some of this due to
the degree of forcing alone. So, will keep at least a mention of
some thunder chances in there. Like the idea of keeping categorical
pops across much of the CWA west of the I-75 corridor. The stalling
frontal boundary brings our SE CWA slightly into question, so
slightly lower pops (still likely) down there heading through
Wednesday.
Given the slow movement, strong forcing, and good deep moisture
transport, have an opportunity to render a decent amount of
beneficial rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday. Lighter
precipitation chances then linger through Thursday or maybe even
Thursday night as the front hangs up over the area. The bulk of the
rainfall will be Tuesday night into Wednesday, where 1" to 1.5" of
rain seems pretty reasonable for the western 2/3 of the CWA. For
context, LREF probabilities of greater than 1" of rainfall range in
the 50-70% range along and west of I-65. East of I-65, those same
probabilities drop to the 25-50% range.
Temperatures will be pretty challenging through mid week as the
frontal boundary stalls and then hangs up over the area. As a
result, expect notable gradients between the mild and cool sides of
the boundary. Wednesday highs could range from the upper 60s in our
NW, to the upper 70s across the SE. By Thursday, only southern KY is
expected to have a chance in the lower 70s. Most everywhere else
will likely stay confined to the mid and upper 60s.
Friday - Monday...
Much lower confidence for Friday into the weekend as forecast
solutions diverge. The lingering upper ridge slowly gives way to a
closed low ejecting out of the SW CONUS. A tropical system in the
Gulf could still also have a role to play, although it is more
likely that we don't see much, if any influence from this feature.
Friday has the best chance at a brief dry spell as Canadian high
pressure and upper ridging transition through our region. However,
some data does not support this, so confidence is not as high here.
Heading through the weekend, a moisture laden low pressure system
looks to take a southern Plains to the Great Lakes route. Another
widespread precipitation event looks likely by Saturday through at
least early Sunday. Have high pops in this timeframe as well. Better
chance for drier conditions by Monday, although not a slam dunk as
some data suggests the trailing cold front will stall across our
area. Temps through this period should mostly be in the 60s for
highs, with perhaps some values near 70 down by the TN border.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 644 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, but widespread
LLWS is expected to cover southern Indiana and central Kentucky
tonight. Around the same time, winds will begin gusting to around 20-
23 knots ahead of an approaching cold front, but during the day
tomorrow, gusts will likely increase closer to 30 knots. As we get
into SDF's extended TAF time frame, the cold front will bring a line
of possibly heavy showers to the airfield. This could reduce
visibilities during the heavier showers. Not expecting much in the
way of thunder. Ceilings are expected to drop into MVFR before
dropping down into IFR as the front passes, likely just after the
end of the TAF period.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 243 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
================== Near-Record Warmth This Week ==================
Tuesday 11/05/2024
Warm Min T Fcst/Warmest (Year) Max T Fcst/Warmest (Year)
Louisville: 67/64 (1977) 82/80 (1975)
Bowling Green: 65/62 (1977) 82/82 (1909)
Lexington: 62/63 (1977) 80/79 (1977)
Frankfort: 62/58 (1977) 80/79 (1987)
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KDW
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...KDW
CLIMATE...BTN
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 9:31 PM EST---------------
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