ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 12:55 PM EST131
FXUS61 KILN 031755
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1255 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
As high pressure to the east of the region moves further away,
southerly flow will become established and increase for the
early part of the week. This will allow for temperatures to warm
well above normal. Showers will start to spread into the area
late Tuesday ahead of a cold front that will move through late
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Region will remain under the influence of high pressure heading
up the St Lawrence Valley. High clouds spilling over an upper
level ridge axis will be thin for the first part of the day. But
as that axis translates east and a short wave rides up the back
side of ridge, clouds will increase and thicken later. Highs
will get into the upper 60s to lower 70s for the most part.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As short wave clips the far northwest part of the forecast
area, cannot rule out a few high-based showers this evening.
Otherwise, it will be mainly cloudy through the night. Lows will
be in the 50s. It looks like clouds might become a little less
extensive heading into Monday. But there will be southerly flow
at the surface and aloft allowing for further warming with most
of the region rising into the mid 70s. Winds may become a little
gusty at that point as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front trailing Great Lakes low pressure will be the
focus for showers during the early part of the long term. A few
showers could impact far northwest locations Monday night to
Tuesday morning. For Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night,
widespread showers are expected with cold frontal passage, along
with 30 knot wind gusts. As front slows down and moisture
persists, showers may linger Wednesday and Thursday, especially
over southeastern locations. Dry weather is likely for Friday
under high pressure. Showers may return Saturday as lift and
moisture increase in advance of the next low pressure.
Temperatures will stay above normal even after cold frontal
passage. Highs on Tuesday are forecast to reach the mid 70s to
around 80. Highs for the rest of the period will mainly be in
the mid and upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.
A mid level ridge will build northward overnight, with its axis
extending from the southeast U.S., northward into the mid
Atlantic and eastern Great Lakes. A weak disturbance riding on
the back side of the ridge, combined with some warm air
advection, will allow clouds to increase from the west. There
may even be a sprinkle northwest of the terminals coming out of
a mid level deck this evening. Winds will be from the southeast
between 5 and 15 knots shifting to the south between 5 and 15
knots with some gusts up to 20 knots north of KDAY. A southerly
low level jet will increase to our west overnight. LLWS
conditions look to stay just to the west of the western
terminals. Will adjust if this should change.
On Monday, our region will remain in a warm southerly regime as
the mid level ridge axis stays to the east while a mid level
trough tries to move east into the Plains. Diurnal mixing and a
tightening surface pressure gradient will allow winds to
increase between 15 and 20 knots sustained with gusts in the mid
20s to lower 30s knots. Some low level moisture will result in
a cloud deck generally between 5 and 7 kft.
OUTLOOK...LLWS possible Monday night into Tuesday morning and
again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Southerly wind gusts
around 30 knots on Tuesday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are
possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. MVFR ceilings may persist
into Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Hickman
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 12:55 PM EST---------------
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