IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 3:07 AM EDT722
FXUS63 KIWX 020707
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
307 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures slowly climb through early next week with highs in
the 70s by Tuesday.
- There are periodic chances for light rain late Sunday through
Tuesday with the best chances generally north of US-24.
- Cooler and drier for the second half of next week (though
still above normal for early November).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024
1030mb surface high currently over the central Great Lakes will
shift eastward today allowing for increasing WAA. Low level gradient
won't be particularly strong but enough to push 850mb temps to 6-8C
by late afternoon. This coupled with mostly sunny skies will yield
afternoon highs near 60F (warmest SW) despite a chilly start this
morning. Lows tonight will hold generally in the upper 30s (mid 30s
NE) given modest SE gradient and increasing clouds.
Strong Pacific jet streak (over 170 kts at 300mb) remains just off
the West Coast this morning but will move onshore later today and
begin to carve out a deep and large trough over the western CONUS.
Strong downstream ridge-building anticipated over the eastern CONUS
with highly meridional (slowly progressing) flow over the Midwest.
Net result will be an almost due north-south baroclinic zone with
several rounds of moderate-heavy rain along it Sun-Tue. However, as
has been discussed for days now, the best moisture convergence and
fgen will reside west of our CWA for much of this period with only
glancing blows in our far W/NW likely until the primary trough axis
and associated front enter our area late Tue. Continued earlier
trend of curtailing NBM PoP's/QPF particularly in our SE half Sun
night and Mon night. Initial warm front could clip our NW with some
light showers late Sun and deterministic models are in reasonable
agreement an embedded shortwave will bring some light rain to our NW
half during the day Mon but this is not expected to be a washout by
any means. Even by late Tue the parent trough will be in a rapid
lifting/weakening phase and some guidance (notably the 00Z GFS)
suggests our area will be largely split by rain. Expect most
locations to see some rain by late Tue but certainly not a drought-
buster. Kept a low chance thunder mention on Tue but lapse rates and
instability are extremely marginal. Thunder will prove difficult and
certainly not expecting any strong storms. It will be breezy once
again though with strong SSW gradient supporting gusts of 30-35 mph
both Mon and Tue.
After another warmup Mon/Tue with highs well into the 70s, temps
return to more seasonable values Wed-Fri (though still on the warm
side for early Nov). Mainly dry conditions expected during this time
though there is some uncertainty in how quickly the moisture exits
on Wed and we will be watching another southwest CONUS upper low
ejecting northeast sometime next weekend. Still a lot of details to
work out in this timeframe though with a high degree of spread in
numerical guidance.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1256 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024
Stubborn low clouds have finally moved out of the area this
evening as high pressure settles over the Lower Great lakes.
Skies are clear and winds have become light and variable over
the past few hours. Clear and calm conditions overnight may
lead to some areas of patchy fog this morning (most likely
between 10-13Z).I would expect fog to be mostly contained to
fields and rural, low-lying areas away from the terminals. With
about a 15% chance of visibilities less than 5 miles at KSBN and
KFWA per the NBM, have chosen to keep fog out of the TAFs for
now, although this may need to be revisited before the 12Z TAF
issuance should any fog develop.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...Johnson
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 3:07 AM EDT---------------
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