ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 1:54 PM EDT682
FXUS61 KILN 021754
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
154 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure extending over the region will move off to the
east tomorrow. Increasing southerly flow through the early part
of the week will result in a warming trend. Showers will start
to spread into the area late Tuesday ahead of a cold front that
will move through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will continue to
extend across the region today. Some thin high clouds will track
eastward, but overall, plenty of sunshine. Highs will range
from the upper 50s far north to the lower/mid 60s south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Surface high will shift off to the east allowing low level flow
to become southeasterly on Sunday. As an upper ridge axis
translates across the region, expect to see an increase in high
clouds late Sunday. There may also be the beginnings of an
influx of lower level moisture and associated cloud cover late.
Lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s. Highs will warm into the
mid 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There will be a low chance of showers Sunday night into Tuesday
over the northwest corner of the FA closer to a slow moving
cold front positioned across the western Great Lakes. As the
front moves farther east into the ILN area later Tuesday through
Tuesday night, showers will become widespread, and 30 knot
gusts will be possible in the tight pressure gradient
surrounding the front. As the front continues to track gradually
southeast, scattered showers may linger Wednesday through
Friday as residual moisture persists behind the front.
While being dictated by frontal position, temperatures will
remain above normal through the period. Highs start in the low
and mid 70s Monday, rising to the mid 70s to around 80 Tuesday
as the front comes closer. A cooling trend will then be observed
as the front passes, with highs falling through the 70s to the
low and mid 60s by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period, except at KLUK,
where a little bit of MVFR mist may occur between 08Z and 12Z
Sunday.
Otherwise, surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes
will move to a position near southeast Canada/New England by 00Z
Monday, while a mid level ridge axis builds northward into the
mid and upper Ohio Valley. East winds 5 to 10 knots this
afternoon and tonight will become southeast between 5 and 15
knots on Sunday. Mainly high clouds from time to time, but some
lower level moisture (between 4 and 5 kft) may encroach the KCVG
terminal by 21Z.
OUTLOOK...Wind gusts around 25 kt possible Monday. Wind gusts
at or above 30 kt likely on Tuesday. MVFR ceilings and
visibilities possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Hickman
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 1:54 PM EDT---------------
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