LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 12:43 PM EST199
FXUS63 KLMK 031743
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1243 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry and unseasonably warm through Monday.
* Widespread rain with a cold front late Tuesday into Wednesday.
* Above normal temperatures and intermittent rain chances for the
rest of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 303 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024
High pressure is sliding off to the northeast allowing winds to veer
to the south by mid morning. Most of the overnight period has
consisted of clear skies, and at the hour some SCT high clouds are
beginning to stream in from the southwest. Both the southerly winds
and clouds will help to slow the cooling rate for the remainder of
the overnight period. Lows are still on track from the previous
forecast.
Amplified troughing over the western CONUS and ridging over the
eastern CONUS will continue to strengthen and move east through the
short term. Surface low pressure over the northern Plains will move
northeastward into the Upper Midwest, which will send a warm front
through the Ohio Valley today. This warm front is progged to move
through in the early afternoon. As a result, WAA will bring warmer
temperatures and increased moisture. High temperatures today will be
in the low-mid 70s along and north of I-64 and mid-upper 70s south
of I-64. Far southwest central Kentucky will be near record
temperatures. Record for today is 82 degrees at BWG. Isentropic lift
along the warm front and a LLJ just brushing the western portion of
the region may bring some isolated very light rain to the region in
the afternoon-early evening. Precip may fall as sprinkles/drizzle or
Virga as there is a dry layer aloft.
In the overnight hours, ridging will shift to the east of the region
and troughing over the central CONUS will continue to amplify. A 40-
45kt LLJ will move in from the west, allowing winds to stay around 7-
12 mph overnight. Due to these winds and continued WAA, low
temperatures are expected to be in the upper 50s and low 60s along
and west of I-65 and mid-upper 50s east of I-65. Wind protected
valley areas in the Bluegrass will have a better chance at
decoupling, allowing them to reach the low-mid 50s. There is a good
shot at breaking the warm min record of 62 at BWG, which was set in
1977.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024
Upper low initially centered over the Four Corners will eject out to
the Texas Panhandle by Monday evening, then open up as it lifts
toward the Great Lakes on Tuesday. We'll be unseasonably warm and
dry Monday with deep southerly flow between the upper low and an
eastern CONUS ridge. Main question on Tuesday is the timing of
precip onset, which can often be difficult as the upper wave is
getting sheared out, and will further dictate the temp forecast.
Expect another unseasonably warm day with POPs really increasing
from mid-afternoon onward. Best rain chances Tuesday night.
Wed-Thu will see the pattern flatten out as the ridge consolidates
off the Carolina coast, and the boundary over the Ohio Valley hangs
up as it becomes oriented parallel to the upper flow. Precip chances
will diminish to a slight chance late Thursday into Friday.
By Fri-Sat the pattern starts to amplify again as another strong
upper low moves through the Four Corners. Negatively tilted upper
ridge should keep us dry on Friday, but by Saturday the ridge axis
slips to our east and opens the door for southerly flow. Low-
confidence forecast includes a 20-30 POP Saturday afternoon, but
that timing will surely be adjusted as the week progresses. Very
mild temps will continue, with the only near normal temps on the
table if widespread precip limits diurnal rises, but otherwise
solidly above normal for early November.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024
Strong low level jet (50-60kt winds) ahead of an approaching warm
front was centered over northeast MO this afternoon and will push to
the northeast this afternoon and evening with a second LLJ streak
coming in overnight. This will increase high clouds over the region
from the southwest to the northeast this afternoon and overnight.
The main impacts from all of this will be the increased likelihood
of low level wind shear (LLWS) overnight from around 06z to 13z
across most of the TAF sites. Other than this, VFR conditions with
generally gusty to breezy southerly winds around 10kts and gusting
to around 20kts.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 303 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024
================== Near-Record Warmth This Week ==================
Monday 11/04/2024 Tuesday 11/05/2024
Max T Fcst/Record (Year) Max T Fcst/Warmest (Year)
Louisville: 78/80 (2003) 80/80 (1975)
Bowling Green: 78/80 (1909) 80/82 (1909)
Lexington: 77/78 (2015) 80/79 (1977)
Frankfort: 77/80 (1974) 79/79 (1987)
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRM
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...BTN
CLIMATE...RAS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 12:43 PM EST---------------
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