BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 9:51 PM EDT833
FXUS61 KBOX 300151
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
951 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing cloudiness with a period of light rain showers for
tonight, north of the Massachusetts Turnpike. Warming up
for Wednesday, then near record high temperatures are expected
Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Nothing more than a
few brief showers are expected with this cold frontal passage
early Friday and the rest of the day should still be mild and
breezy. Much cooler and seasonable temperatures return this
weekend with dry weather. Unseasonable warmth will build back
across the mid-Atlantic states early next week...but its
northward progression is uncertain and will depend on the
location of a backdoor cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM Update...
* Brief band of showers crosses the region tonight especially
north of the MA Turnpike...but rainfall amounts will be light
Previous forecast is on track. Approaching warm front was
allowing a band of showers to overspread the region. At this
hour, the radar is showing more activity then what is likely
reaching the ground with only sparse reports of light rain
across the region. This activity will work eastward over the
next few hours before moving off shore by morning. Most
locations could briefly see a period of light rain
showers...but the stronger forcing/deeper moisture is focused
north of the MA Turnpike. This is where the showers will last a
bit longer with greater coverage too. That being said...rainfall
amounts will be light as the prior forecast discusses below.
The main questions for tonight revolve around QPF amounts related to
the warm front, as well as how quickly will temps start to rise in
the face of increasing SSW winds and warm advection. While any rain
will be beneficial in light of the active wildfire situation in
Southern New England, am not optimistic rain amounts will be any
more than a quarter-inch in any one area. For one, the better
forcing is more located into VT and NH. Also only seeing observed
rain amounts between a couple hundredths to a couple tenths of
an inch max with this band of rain. In light of that, I opted
toward the lower end of rain totals from a couple hundredths to
no more than two tenths of an inch, highest north and lowest (if
any?) south. Temps are tricky with the warm front. Could see
brief cooling due to wetbulbing as rain moves in leading to
early lows in the mid 40s to low 50s, then hovering to gradually
rise into the low to mid 50s.
Finally, Massachusetts DEP has requested issuance of an Air
Quality Alert for Western Essex County in MA through midnight
due to Fine Particulates.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM Update:
Wednesday and Wednesday Night:
Wed looks to be the first day of a spell of well above normal
temperatures for late October. Warm front will have passed well
offshore early in the day, which will usher in 925 mb temps of
around +15 to +17C on SW winds. BUFKIT soundings indicate that
vertical mixing could be fairly shallow, which could serve both as a
cap to how warm our temperatures can reach as well as lead to more
occasional southwesterly breezes up to 20 mph. There may also be a
pretty generous canopy of high clouds that could result in more
filtered sun. Ended up reducing dewpoints into the lower 50s vs the
higher 50s values, which brings relative humidities down into the 45
to 50 percent range. Highs on Wednesday should reach into the lower
to mid 70s with mixing to 925 mb and SW downsloped breezes. Fire
weather will continue to be a focus as well, see the Fire Weather
section for more details. It remains dry with partial cloudiness for
the evening hours, with a continued southwest wind which will keep
low temperatures up. Indicated forecast lows in the low to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points...
* Near record highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s on Thu
* Still quite mild Fri & breezy too with highs in the 70s
* Much cooler/seasonable temps briefly return this weekend
* Unseasonable warmth battles a backdoor cold front early next week
* Dry weather other than a few showers poss early Fri/early next week
Details...
Thursday...
The last day of October will feature near record high temperatures!
Upper level ridging off the mid-Atlantic coast will generate an
anomalous southwest flow of air across southern New England. Given
our overall prolonged stretch of dry weather and southwest
flow...would not be surprised if temperatures overachieved a bit.
850T on the order of +13C to +15C are quite impressive for this time
of year. Thinking with plenty of sunshine...highs should top off
near record levels in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
Thursday night and Friday...
It will remain quite mild Thu night with southwest flow out ahead of
an approaching cold front. Given enough wind in the boundary
layer...thinking overnight low temps only bottom out in the upper
50s to the lower 60s. A cold front/shortwave will cross the region
very late Thu night into early Fri. The front is moisture
starved...so it may come through completely dry or perhaps with a
few brief light showers. Otherwise...plenty of sunshine should
develop Fri and although it will not be quite as warm as
Thursday...we still expect highs in the 70s as it will take sometime
for the cooler air to work in behind the front. We also do expect it
to be breezy on Thu with westerly wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph with a
few gusts perhaps near 35 mph.
This Weekend...
Much cooler air finally works back into the region this weekend as
large high pressure builds behind the cold front. Highs will be
mainly in the 50s to near 60 with chilly overnight low
temps...especially Sat night as high pressure builds over the region
and provides an ideal night for radiational cooling. Many outlying
locations should bottom out well down into the 20s.
Early Next Week...
Upper level ridging builds back across the southeast and mid-
Atlantic states early next week. The result will be unseasonably
warm to perhaps record breaking temperatures building back into the
mid-Atlantic States. However...not sure how quickly/how much of this
anomalous warmth will advect into our region. There appears to be a
backdoor shallow cool front in the vicinity...that may eventually
retreat enough to allow this warm into southern New England by the
middle of next week. That being said...a lot of uncertainty in
specific temperatures at this time range but should certainly be
above normal by the middle of next week. We may also have a few
showers sometime early next week in the vicinity of this
boundary...but any rainfall amounts will likely be rather light and
probably short-lived.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF Update...
Tonight: Moderate confidence.
A warm front brings lowering ceilings into the MVFR range (a low
prob of IFR), with approaching light SHRA from 00-10z Wed from
W to E. -SHRA will be more widespread and last a bit longer
near and north of I-90...but many locations will see at least a
brief period of light showers. SE to S winds around 10-15 kt
with gusts around 20 kt.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night: High confidence.
Any lingering MVFR ceilings should improve to VFR from west to
east by lunchtime. SSW winds around 10-15 kt with gusts around
20 kt during the day, with gusts easing by early evening.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. A period of MVFR
conditions later tonight into early Wednesday along with a 1-3
hour period of showers.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. A period of MVFR
conditions is expected tonight along with a few hours of rain
showers.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Friday/
Thursday: VFR. Breezy.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Wednesday Night: High confidence.
Tonight:
Small Craft conditions develop tonight for most of our open
waters with a modest southerly LLJU. Winds increase with gusts
20-30 kts and waves 4-6 ft over the open waters.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night:
Small craft conditions come to an end by the afternoon. SW
winds 15-20 kt and seas 3-5 ft, which become 4 ft or less for
the evening and overnight.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.
Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers.
Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The unusually prolonged dry stretch of weather will result in
continued Fire Weather Concerns for the rest of the week. In
fact...our biggest concern may be Friday when westerly winds may
gust to between 25 and 30 mph with even a few gusts up to 35 mph! We
will continue to coordinate Fire Weather products with our state
partners.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Maximum Record High Temperatures: October, 30th
BOS: 78F (1918)
ORH: 78F (1946)
PVD: 79F (1946)
BDL: 83F (1946)
Maximum Record High Temperatures: October, 31st
BOS: 81F (1946)
ORH: 79F (1946)
PVD: 83F (1946)
BDL: 82F (1946)
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MAZ006.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ231>235-
237-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ250-254.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/Loconto
NEAR TERM...Frank/Loconto/KP
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/Loconto
MARINE...Frank/Loconto
FIRE WEATHER...Frank
CLIMATE...Dooley
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 9:51 PM EDT----------------
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