CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 9:43 AM EDT649
FXUS61 KCLE 021343
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
943 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Great Lakes this weekend will gradually
exit toward New England Sunday night into Monday. A warm front
will lift north across the Ohio Valley on Monday before low
pressure drags a cold front eastward by mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
9:45 AM Update:
Minor tweaks to hourly temperatures, dew points, and sky cover
based on obs/satellite. The forecast is on track this morning.
Previous discussion...
Calm and quiet through the near term as high pressure settles
overhead the Great Lakes region. An inversion around 925mb has
allowed for lingering lake effect cloud cover to persist across
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. As the high continues
to build eastward, these clouds will gradually scatter out
through the afternoon. Expect dry conditions through the near
term as high pressure remains in control.
Afternoon highs today will remain near to slightly below normal
for early November as they rise into the mid 50s for most, low
50s across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Clear
skies overnight will allow for chilly overnight lows to dip into
the low 30s in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania, mid
30s elsewhere. Warmer by Sunday as the high begins to exit to
the east with afternoon high temperatures rising into the upper
50s to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The main story for the short term period is the significant shaving
back of rain chances through early Tuesday afternoon. The approach
of the next system appears to be significantly slower with the cold
front remaining well back into Wisconsin and Illinois, as the upper
ridge across the region and closed upper high over the southeast
will limit eastward progression. Have cut back PoPs by a category or
two with the bulk of the forecast area dry until the front
approaches later on Tuesday. Have categorical PoPs going for Tuesday
night with the main system moving through. Temperatures through the
period will be well above normal and close to record highs again on
Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will move through the forecast area on Wednesday and
PoPs will begin their downward trend as this feature exits the
region. Some cold air advection with residual troughiness across the
region could allow for some showers to continue to the lee of Lake
Erie through Wednesday night but any precipitation would be minimal.
An upper ridge will be slow to advance into the region for the end
of the week. Some bouts of vorticity advection with some minor
shortwaves into the area could allow for some low rain chances, but
in the end, believe that Thursday and Friday's forecasts have a
chance to trend to dry. Temperatures will remain above normal
through the period with highs in the 60s, even behind the cold
front.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Mainly VFR with patches of MVFR cigs in lake effect cloud cover
across portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.
High pressure will continue to build overhead which will scatter
out any lingering lake effect clouds through late this morning.
Clear through the bulk of the TAF window before high level
clouds enter from west to east by Sunday morning.
Light and variable flow under high pressure except for KERI
which will have northerly flow between 5-8 knots through
tonight. Winds turn northeasterly to easterly at 5-8 knots by
this evening and eventually southeasterly at 5-8 knots by early
Sunday morning.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered rain showers Sunday
through Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over the region today will allow for light northerly
flow on the lake. The high moves east for Sunday and easterly flow
will build as the pressure gradient slightly increases. A warm front
will cross the lake and southeast to south flow will be favored for
Sunday night into Monday. Mixing in the warm sector should be
efficient and there could be a need for a Small Craft Advisory with
offshore winds of 20 knots or greater. Winds will shift more to the
southwest for Tuesday and could be just as strong with the
approaching cold front to merit a longer window of a possible
headline. A cold front will cross the lake Tuesday night into
Wednesday and allow for winds to become westerly then northwesterly
and diminish. A brief window for some elevated waves is
possible.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Iverson/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Iverson
MARINE...Sefcovic
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 9:43 AM EDT---------------
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