BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 7:05 AM EDT745
FXUS61 KBOX 291105
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
705 AM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Looking at a period of below normal temperatures this morning.
A warm front today will bring increasing clouds and light
rainfall to the region. Warming up for Wednesday then near
record warmth Thursday before a cold front will bring
temperatures back into the 50s for the weekend. Light rain
showers are possible Friday with dry and sunny conditions
returning for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The core of surface high pressure shifts east of the region today
and winds will turn southerly as a warm front begins to make its way
north across southern New England. The biggest impact of this front
today will be an increase in cloudcover starting early, then rain
chances overspreading the region from west to east in the afternoon
(western MA/CT) and late evening (eastern MA). Along with forcing
for ascent from the warm advection, a 30-35 kt LLJ develops
overhead; these together will act on a 1.25+ inch PWAT plume leading
to widespread light rain showers as we go into the overnight hours.
The warm advection will also lead to slightly warmer temperatures
today compared with yesterday, in the upper 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight rain showers continue, exiting western areas before sunrise
but may linger into the early morning hours for extreme eastern MA.
Rainfall amounts are not expected to be significant in the face of
our abnormally dry stretch, especially for areas further south. The
highest rainfall amounts (some guidance suggesting as much as a
quarter inch or more) is more likely in northern MA in closer
proximity to better forcing. Ensemble guidance indicates a 90%+
chance of at least a tenth of an inch of rain in northern MA while
southern MA and RI is at a 40-50% chance. Winds will be breezy
overnight, especially over the waters as that LLJ passes overhead.
Wednesday a few showers linger in the morning but as mid level
ridging builds back in so does drier air. W/SW winds will advect in
a much warmer airmass with 850 mb temps climbing from +1C on Tuesday
to +14C on Wednesday! This translates to a much above average day,
with highs in the mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points
* Well above normal to record high warmth Thursday
* Elevated fire weather concerns continue with abnormally dry
conditions
* Cold front could bring light showers Friday with much colder
temperatures by Saturday
Thursday
Despite the flattening upper level ridge on Thursday, 850mb temps
rise to +12C to +13C on with strong WSW winds. With mostly sunny
skies in place, High temperatures across the region will sore to
near record high values in the upper 70s to low 80s. Not out of the
question that typical warm spots like Bradley and Norwood reach the
mid 80s. With SSW winds, Thursday could even feature closer to
summer like dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s. However, I think
guidance may be a bit bullish on dewpoints as mixing will help bring
more dry air down then current global guidance is indicating. BUFKIT
soundings show dewpoints dropping from 50F at 925mb to 32F around
900mb. If temps are able to top 80F, mixing above 900mb becomes more
likely, pulling down very dry air from aloft. Winds above 900mb look
to be near 40mph, but its unlikely to see gusts that high mix down
the surface. Winds in the middle of the boundary layer are closer to
20mph which is more likely to be observed at the surface. With the
continued abnormally dry conditions, expect elevated fire weather
conditions to continue on Thursday.
Friday
A cold front and trailing shortwave crosses the region Friday which
could bring some scattered showers to the region. Moisutre looks
limited again with the cold frontal passage and a soaking rain is
looking is unlikely. Some of the global deterministic guidance even
pitch a shut out for all of SNE. Any rain that does fall will likely
be light under a tenth of an inch. Temps do moderate into the low to
mid 70s with the passage of the first cold front. Winds turn west
behind the front and remain gusty at 20-30mph. Depending on how the
precip forecast evolves through the week, elevated fire weather
conditions would persist with a drier forecast.
Saturday and Sunday.
A secondary cold front and reinforcing shot of cold air bring temps
back down into the 50s. Upper level ridge and surface high pressure
build back in, bringing dry conditions and mostly sunny skies. Winds
quickly die down and become light northerly on Saturday, flipping to
light SSW again on Sunday.
Early next week:
Forecast confidence breaks down significantly by Monday with large
phase differences in the global deterministic guidance. The general
trend however looks to be near normal temperatures and possibly more
chances at some beneficial rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
12Z update...
Today...High Confidence.
VFR/MVFR to start, lowering to MVFR during the late afternoon
and evening ahead of an approaching warm front. South/southeast
winds 7 to 10 knots.
Tonight...Moderate Confidence.
MVFR to IFR. -SHRA moves in from west to east after 00z in
western areas, while the eastern coast 03z. South winds around
10 knots, may have gusts near 20 knots along the coast.
Wednesday...High Confidence.
VFR. Breezy SW winds. SHRA chances early morning on east coast
terminals before exiting east.
KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
Outlook / Wednesday Night through Friday/
Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.
Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Tuesday...High confidence.
Today:
High pressure then remains over the waters with winds less than
25 kts and waves 2-4 ft.
Tonight:
Small Craft conditions develop tonight in the outer waters.
Winds increase with gusts 20-30 kts and waves 4-6 ft.
Wednesday:
Small craft conditions come to an end through the day. SW winds
15-20 kt.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft.
Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers.
Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
* SPS for Elevated Fire Weather Concerns Continues Today
State Fire Weather Partners requested the continuation of a
Special Weather Statement for elevated fire weather concerns today.
There are numerous active brush fires are burning across
southern New England.
Cooler temperatures continue for today with highs in the 50s to
near 60F in the lower Connecticut River Valley. Dewpoints
increased slightly, raising the minimum values of relative
humidity between 45 percent and 65 percent for this afternoon.
Wind direction are south/southeast 10 to 15 mph with gusts 20 to
25 mph.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Maximum Record High Temperatures: October, 30th
BOS: 78F (1918)
ORH: 78F (1946)
PVD: 79F (1946)
BDL: 83F (1946)
Maximum Record High Temperatures: October, 31st
BOS: 81F (1946)
ORH: 79F (1946)
PVD: 83F (1946)
BDL: 82F (1946)
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 PM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ250-254.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW/KP
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...BW/KP
MARINE...BW/KP
FIRE WEATHER...BW/KP
CLIMATE...Dooley
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 7:05 AM EDT----------------
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