ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 2:05 PM EDT563
FXUS61 KILN 311805
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
205 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds will occur ahead of a cold front that will move
through the area late today into the evening. In addition, there
will be showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. High pressure
will bring a return to dry conditions along with cooler
temperatures for the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
Early afternoon update centered on removing thunder from the
forecast as there have not been any strikes over the past 1.5
hours and the onus for inclusion of thunder was contingent on
daytime heating being a necessary ingredient. Temperatures have
been significantly muted and are not likely to increase to
earlier forecast values, so highs and temp traces have been
nudged downwards.
Upstream precip shield is spotty and generally light north of
the Ohio River through at least Louisville. These spotty showers
behind the initial line of very weak convection continue to
maintain a light and transitory nature. Further west and closer
to the cold front, a more widespread area of rain is occurring
and seems to be congealing into a more steady, heavier band of
rainfall. Timing of the rain area ahead of the front still
remains in a state of flux, but does appear to be primed from
between 5 and 8 pm this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Cold front will continue to move through the forecast area
during the evening. Pre- frontal showers will diminish, but a
fine line of showers may develop right along the front and track
along with the boundary. There could be a brief increase in
gusts right at frontal passage, but thereafter winds will
gradually subside through the overnight. Clouds will decrease as
well.
High pressure will build in for Friday. There may be a few
stratocumulus, especially in west central Ohio, but overall
plenty of sunshine. Highs will be close to normal, upper 50s to
lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
After a tranquil start, an active period is indicated, thanks to a
digging mid level trough and associated surface low and cold front,
coupled with deep moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico.
Dry weather is anticipated for Friday night and Saturday as high
pressure tracks across the Great Lakes. The threat for showers
begins on Sunday under a band of isentropic upglide near a warm
front that will be well ahead of low pressure forming to the west.
The best chance for showers appears to be over northwestern
locations that will be closer to the warm front. The model blend
suggests a similar scenario for Monday and Tuesday as additional
bands of lift and moisture circulate ahead of the slowly evolving
low pressure. The likelihood for showers spreads east across the
entire FA Tuesday night into Wednesday when a cold front is expected
to push through. Gusty winds will be evident, especially on Tuesday
in the tightening pressure gradient ahead of the cold front.
Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal through the period.
Highs in the 60s Saturday and the low 60s to mid 70s Sunday will
increase to the 70s to around 80 Monday and Tuesday as warm
advection takes hold on the southerly flow ahead of the low. A
retreat back to the low 60s to low 70s may be observed on Wednesday
following cold frontal passage.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Aside from a few MVFR cigs/vsbys in the spotty rain located
from CVG to just west of DAY, conditions will be VFR outside of
shower activity.
Lightning activity has dropped out of the equation and is not
noted across the area for the past several hours.
South winds 20g30kt will turn sw and lighten slightly, then west
with the front and lose any gusts, finally lightening to a more
manageable 10-14kt overnight. By daybreak, northerly winds
should be under 10kt with generally clear sky cover noted.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Franks
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 2:05 PM EDT---------------
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