BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 1:31 AM EDT119
FXUS61 KBOX 290531
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
131 AM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Looking at a period of below normal temperatures into tonight. A
warm front on Tuesday will bring increasing clouds and chances
at light rainfall. Warming up for Wednesday and near record
warmth on Thursday. A cold front bring the chance of showers
early Friday morning. High pressure returns this weekend along
with colder temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10PM Update:
No major changes made at this hour as the forecast remains on
track. Temps are dropping quickly with Taunton and Orange
reporting 33F. Guidance is still expecting increasing cloud
cover overnight as a 850mb ridge moves east and WAA kick in.
Previous discussion
The center of a surface high shifts to the east of the region
tonight with an upper level ridge slowly approaching southern
New England. This will keep winds light overnight with at least
a mainly clear start to the night. High resolution guidance
hints at lower clouds developing overnight, mainly in western
MA/NW CT, although there is some uncertainty in overall
coverage. Despite this, it will be another cool night with lows
dropping into the 30s in most spots. The higher spots will
likely drop into at least the upper 20s. If clouds stay on the
minimal side or come in later, there should be plenty of
radiational cooling to get lows closer to the mid 20s in spots
overnight. It will also remain dry overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tuesday:
Main story for Tuesday will be a warm front that moves across
the region. The main impact this will bring are increasing
clouds during the day Tuesday with shower chances increasing
from west to east in the mid afternoon to early evening
timeframe. Increased moisture and higher dewpoint air move in
from the south over the course of the afternoon. With weak warm
advection with the front, this will result in slightly warmer
highs than Monday in the mid to upper 50s.
Tuesday Night:
Early evening through the overnight period will be the best
timeframe to see rainfall. A plume of above normal precipitable
water values shifts east into southern New England supporting
wetting rain. Overall this isn't looking like a heavy rain event
with total QPF more likely in the .05 to 0.30" range across
southern New England. The "higher" end of amounts likely stay
confined to northern MA with ensemble probabilities for >0.10"
rain around 50-70%.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights:
* Abnormally warm conditions Wednesday, but especially Thursday,
which could make a run at the daily record high for Halloween.
* Chance of rain late Thursday night into Friday morning with the
passage of a cold front.
* Dry weather returns this weekend and it will be noticeably colder
although temperatures are near normal for early November.
Mid-level ridging sets up on Wednesday in the wake of a departing
warm front, but a rouge shower is possible for eastern Massachusetts
early Wednesday morning. Quiet, dry, and warm conditions expected
for both Wednesday and Thursday/Halloween as mid-level ridging and
surfaced high pressure builds into the northeast.
The most notable part of the forecast are the near-record high
temperatures Thursday afternoon. 925mb temperatures are forecast to
be well above what is normal, +13C to +15C for Wednesday, +17C to
+19C for Thursday, but the high-res guidance does show the highest
925mb being closer to +20C to +22C! Did a quick search, sounding
climatology at CHH has the 90th percentile at +14.2C, with maximum
of all days of +18.4C. That said, Wednesday will be warm as highs
reach the low to middle 70s, immediate south coast remains in the
upper 60s. As for Thursday, highs are middle to upper 70s, with a
few locations in the Merrimack Valley and Connecticut River Valley
nearing 80F. With many records on either side of 80 degrees on
Thursday, we are in striking distance. Because of the abnormal
conditions, did lean with 90th percentile of the NBM for the
afternoon high temperatures. See the Climate section at the bottom
of the AFD for more on the current records for both days.
Nothing spooky, weatherwise for the trick-or-treaters, the evening
conditions remain dry with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s
around 6pm and come 9pm those temperatures fall to the low 60s and
upper 50s. We will have some breezy southwest winds near 10 MPH.
Overnight Thursday into Friday our pattern shifts ahead of a cold
front the brings another change of rain, albeit not the soaking rain
that we need to squash the abnormally dry conditions. While there is
enough moisture, does seem the best forcing lags behind the moisture
plume across southern New England. Continued with 'Chance' POPs in
the extended for much of the first part of Friday, decreasing the
POPs during the afternoon as the mid-level trough pushes through and
PWATs fall. What this frontal system does deliver is a much colder
airmass, 925mb temperatures quickly fall, +8C to +10C Friday
afternoon, should still have mild afternoon temperatures in the
upper 60s and low 70s, but if the front comes in sooner, could have
cooler temperatures by the afternoon.
High pressure will bring dry conditions this weekend, but will be
much colder as 925mb temperatures are in the low single digits
Celsius. While much colder, our temperatures are more seasonable for
early November. Highs are mid-50s and nighttime lows in the upper
30s to low 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06Z update...
Rest of tonight...High Confidence.
VFR. SCT to BKN deck of low-end VFR to MVFR possible across
western MA/CT, impacting sites like KBDL. Light winds.
Today...High Confidence.
VFR to start, lowering to MVFR during the late afternoon and
evening ahead of an approaching warm front. South/southeast
winds 7 to 10 knots.
Tonight...Moderate Confidence.
MVFR to IFR. -SHRA moves in from west to east after 00z in
western areas, while the eastern coast 03z. South winds around
10 knots, may have gusts near 20 knots along the coast.
Wednesday...High Confidence.
VFR. Breezy SW winds. SHRA chances early morning on east coast
terminals before exiting east.
KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
Outlook / Wednesday Night through Friday/
Wednesday night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.
Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Tuesday...High confidence.
Monday Night - Tuesday:
High pressure then remains over the waters into Tuesday with
winds less than 25 kts and waves 2-4 ft.
Tuesday Night:
Small Craft conditions develop Tuesday night in the south outer
waters near Block Island and in the northeast outer waters off
of Cape Ann. Winds increase with gusts 20-30 kts and waves 4-6
ft.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft.
Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers.
Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
* SPS for Elevated Fire Weather Concerns extends into Tuesday
State Fire Weather Partners asked for the continuation of the
special weather statement for Elevated Fire Weather Concerns on
Tuesday. Partners state numerous active brush fires are burning
across southern New England.
Cooler temperatures continue for Tuesday with highs in the 50s to
near 60F in the lower Connecticut River Valley. Dewpoints increased
slightly, raising the minimum values of relative humidity between 45
percent and 65 percent for Tuesday afternoon. Wind direction are
south/southeast 10 to 15 mph with gusts 20 to 25 mph.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Maximum Record High Temperatures: October, 30th
BOS: 78F (1918)
ORH: 78F (1946)
PVD: 79F (1946)
BDL: 83F (1946)
Maximum Record High Temperatures: October, 31st
BOS: 81F (1946)
ORH: 79F (1946)
PVD: 83F (1946)
BDL: 82F (1946)
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Dooley/Mensch
NEAR TERM...Mensch/KP
SHORT TERM...Mensch
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...BW/Dooley
MARINE...Dooley/Mensch
FIRE WEATHER...Dooley/Mensch
CLIMATE...Dooley
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 1:31 AM EDT----------------
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