ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 4:15 AM EDT951
FXUS61 KILN 310815
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
415 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds will occur ahead of a cold front that will move
through the area late today into the evening. In addition, there
will be showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. High pressure
will bring a return to dry conditions along with cooler
temperatures for the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cold front pushing into the Mississippi Valley early this
morning will continue eastward and get into the western part of
the forecast area by the end of the day. Showers occurring well
ahead of the front will move into the area, mainly after noon.
While not straightforward, it appears that there will be a
weakening trend in this activity, this despite affecting the
area during a diurnally favorable time of day. While warm
advection will result in another very warm day, highs in the 70s
to lower 80s, insolation will be limited due to an extensive mid
deck of clouds and an increase in lower clouds. Instability is
forecast to be quite limited, but cannot completely rule out a
bit of thunder.
A low level jet will translate into the region this morning and
then weaken this afternoon as it lifts northeast. Mixing into
even a portion of this low level jet will result in rather gusty
winds. The highest winds are expected from mid morning into the
early afternoon with a slight decrease in gust magnitude mid to
late afternoon. There is a window ahead of any showers where
gusts may get as high as 50 mph in the northwest part of the
forecast area. Thus a wind advisory has been issued for those
counties.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Cold front will continue to move through the forecast area
during the evening. Pre-frontal showers will diminish, but a
fine line of showers may develop right along the front and track
along with the boundary. There could be a brief increase in
gusts right at frontal passage, but thereafter winds will
gradually subside through the overnight. Clouds will decrease as
well.
High pressure will build in for Friday. There may be a few
stratocumulus, especially in west central Ohio, but overall
plenty of sunshine. Highs will be close to normal, upper 50s to
lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
After a tranquil start, an active period is indicated, thanks to a
digging mid level trough and associated surface low and cold front,
coupled with deep moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico.
Dry weather is anticipated for Friday night and Saturday as high
pressure tracks across the Great Lakes. The threat for showers
begins on Sunday under a band of isentropic upglide near a warm
front that will be well ahead of low pressure forming to the west.
The best chance for showers appears to be over northwestern
locations that will be closer to the warm front. The model blend
suggests a similar scenario for Monday and Tuesday as additional
bands of lift and moisture circulate ahead of the slowly evolving
low pressure. The likelihood for showers spreads east across the
entire FA Tuesday night into Wednesday when a cold front is expected
to push through. Gusty winds will be evident, especially on Tuesday
in the tightening pressure gradient ahead of the cold front.
Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal through the period.
Highs in the 60s Saturday and the low 60s to mid 70s Sunday will
increase to the 70s to around 80 Monday and Tuesday as warm
advection takes hold on the southerly flow ahead of the low. A
retreat back to the low 60s to low 70s may be observed on Wednesday
following cold frontal passage.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR will continue with some mid clouds spreading into the region
after 12Z. A low level jet tracking across the region will
result in low level wind shear during the early part of the TAF
period with those winds mixing down after 12Z. Expect the
strongest winds gusts between about 14Z and 18Z, although it
will still remain fairly gusty through the rest of the day and
even past 00Z, although there will be a diminishing trend at
that point. However, winds will be veering the west late in the
period.
Showers will spread into the area towards 18Z. At this point, it
appears that any restrictions associated with them would be a
bit of visibility drop at most. However, as showers taper off
towards 00Z, low levels may become moist enough for an MVFR
ceiling to develop, at least at some of the sites. Looks like
there could be a narrow line of showers with a cold frontal
passage late in the period. There may also be a brief increase
in wind gusts associated with this.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Wednesday high temperature records are as follows:
CVG: 83F, 1927
DAY: 81, 1901,1927
CMH: 80F, 1927
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this
afternoon for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>054.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...
CLIMATE...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 4:15 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
