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089 FXUS64 KLIX 242010AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA310 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024High pressure will remain in place across the region. Dewpointshave come up slightly with a bit of onshore flow today, whichmakes for an interesting fog forecast. Fog should be a little morewidespread tonight compared to last night given the slightincrease in moisture. This morning a few observation sites dropped to 1 mi or lower, with New Roads briefly dropping toaround 0.25 mi. Compounding the issues, the dry conditions haveallowed several fires to pop up across the area, and some smoke islikely to be trapped below the inversion, adding a higherconcentration of condensation nuclei to the equation.HREF probabilities of visibility below 1 mile are higher than theNBM, which isn't too surprising, but think that the HREF may be alittle too aggressive. Will need to monitor obs and trendsclosely, but for the time being am carrying patchy to areas of fogwith no explicit mention of dense fog both tonight and tomorrownight.Otherwise short term remains quiet with lows in the upper 50s and60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s.&&.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday night)Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024No significant changes to forecast reasoning in the extendedeither. Cold front still looks to stall north of the local areaover the weekend, but high pressure will shift eastward with windsbecoming more southeasterly by early in the work week.Influx of moisture from the Gulf will result in potential for fog,but density and areal coverage remain uncertain as the depth ofthe moisture will be a determining factor. With no cold fronts forecast to move through the area,temperatures will remain well above normal through the period.Unfortunately, there continues to be no significant rain on thehorizon. Latest drought monitor update this morning indicates D2(severe drought) conditions have developed over parts of ournorthwestern CWA, with abnormally dry conditions across roughlythe northwestern half of the area. Outlooks from CPC continue toindicate below normal precipitation over the coming weeks, withdrought persisting or worsening across much of the area. &&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024Biggest concern will be potential for fog near daybreak. Whilemoisture remains fairly shallow, there was patchy fog thismorning, with visibility reduced to one mile or lower at somenon-TAF observing sites. Dewpoints have come up a degree or twotoday compared to yesterday, so think fog may be a little morewidespread tonight, especially around Houma and Baton Rouge. Haveincluded TEMPO or prevailing groups for fog in areas most likelyto see restrictions. Otherwise, once any fog mixes out aftersunrise, no additional impacts are expected.&&.MARINE...Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024Benign conditions are expected across the coastal waters as highpressure remains in place through the weekend. By early next week,expect a more consistent onshore flow to develop as the highshifts eastward. No convective impacts expected through theperiod.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 56 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 60 89 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 58 86 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 64 83 64 84 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 60 83 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 58 89 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...DMLONG TERM....DMAVIATION...DMMARINE...DM
