MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 5:13 AM CDT ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...716
FXUS64 KMOB 281013
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
513 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 513 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Upper troughing that has lingered across the area will move east of
the area by this evening, with subtle deep layer ridging building
in. A cold air damming event (ie - shallow cooler air pushing up
against the Appalachian mountains getting funneled southward) will
begin to spill into the southeast Gulf coast states today in the
wake of a weak back door cold front that will be entering our
northeastern counties. This scenario will set up a tight temperature
gradient across the area, with highs for our far eastern and
northeastern counties only reaching the lower 80s (perhaps even a
few locations only in the upper 70s) but increasing to the mid and
upper 80s across the remainder of the forecast area (with the
highest temperatures expected over our coastal AL and interior
southeast MS counties). After several days of record high
temperatures, we should should remain just below record levels
today(although still well above normal). Lows tonight will range
from the upper 50s and lower 60s inland to the mid and upper 60s
along the coast. The cooler air filters west and south across the
remainder of the forecast area on Tuesday, with highs in the low to
mid 80s over the eastern half of the forecast area with middle 80s
more widespread over the western half of the forecast area. Lows
Tuesday night are expected should be in the 60s across the entire
area. No rain is expected in the near term, but patchy ground fog
will likely still be possible across the area with the best chance
across portions of southeast MS, but also possible along the I-10
corridor as well. DS/12
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 513 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
At the start of the period, our region will be located in between
an upper-level ridge over the eastern US and an upper trough over
the Rockies. A few weak shortwaves look to move across the region
through Thursday night, but overall, the upper ridge should
maintain its hold over our area. By Friday and into the weekend,
the upper trough will move across the Great Lakes region/Ohio
River Valley, helping to dampen the upper ridge and shove it back
to the west. At the surface, high pressure over the Western
Atlantic allows for breezy southeasterly winds to continue through
Thursday. A frontal boundary should begin to approach the area
Thursday before stalling and washing out over central
Mississippi/Alabama on Friday. By the weekend, high pressure over
the northern US shifts eastward towards the Appalachians, possibly
allowing for another cold air damming (CAD) event to materialize
over the southeast US by Sunday.
As far as rain chances, decided to introduce a 20% PoP to our
southwestern zones for Wednesday morning. With a weak shortwave
passing overhead, along with increasing moisture values and gusty
onshore flow, a few isolated showers developing over the Gulf and
moving into our southwestern counties cannot be ruled out. Another
round of isolated to widely scattered showers (and possibly a
thunderstorm) may be possible over our southeast Mississippi
counties Thursday afternoon out ahead of the approaching frontal
boundary. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail through the period
thanks to the subsident effects from the nearby upper ridge. Highs
will generally be in the low to mid 80s through the period. After a
very mild night Wednesday night (mid to upper 60s inland to the low
70s along the coast), lows will gradually trend downward through the
period as winds start to relax. Lows by the weekend should drop back
into the upper 50s to low 60s areawide. A High Risk of rip currents
will continue through, at least, Friday night and a High Surf
Advisory will likely become necessary for Wednesday and Thursday for
surf heights rising to 4-6 feet. /96
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 513 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
A light to moderate easterly flow develops on Monday, becoming
more east to southeasterly by Tuesday and then increasing to
moderate to occasionally strong flow through midweek, along with
increasing seas. Small Craft Advisories may be required for a
portion of the marine area by Wednesday, Exercise Caution
headlines at the least. DS/12
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 86 64 84 66 83 68 83 65 / 0 0 0 0 20 0 10 10
Pensacola 82 67 81 69 81 70 81 66 / 0 0 0 0 20 0 0 0
Destin 83 66 83 69 82 69 81 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0
Evergreen 85 57 84 61 85 63 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0
Waynesboro 88 59 85 60 85 65 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 20 20
Camden 85 58 82 61 84 63 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10
Crestview 88 57 86 61 86 62 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Friday
evening for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Friday
evening for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 5:13 AM CDT ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
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