LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 1, 1:18 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...039
FXUS63 KLMK 010518
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
118 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Tonight, the cold front will bring cooler temperatures to the
region.
* Mainly dry weekend with the next chance for appreciable rainfall
next Tuesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 934 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
Shower activity has just about pushed east of the I-65 corridor as
of this evening, but we are still waiting for the cold front to
arrive. Latest obs show the front is stretching from Indianapolis to
Cape Girardeau, and gradually pushing eastward. The boundary is
actually visible on KVWX, and is beginning to enter Dubois County.
Expect the front to be bisecting the CWA by midnight, and will be
through the entire area by tomorrow morning. CAMs and soundings
suggest some light rain or drizzle may still be possible with the
front, so plan to hold on to some lower PoPs ahead of the front.
Otherwise, the forecast remains in good shape. Behind the front, we
should see a rapid decrease in cloud cover, and a sharp wind shift
to NNW flow. Cooler N flow will remain through the morning in the
wake of the front.
With the front gradually sliding through overnight, it does open the
opportunity for a wide range in overnight low temps. North of the
Ohio River will have the most time behind the front and in CAA
regime, so our southern Indiana counties could end up dropping into
the low 40s. In contrast, Lake Cumberland will remain in the pre-
frontal warm sector through much of the night, and could only see
temps drop into the upper 50s, resulting in a roughly 15 degree
difference across the forecast area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 348 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
Currently, there is upper ridging over the eastern third of the US
and an upper trough over the western two thirds. Where the ridge and
trough come together near the Mississippi River Valley, there is a
stacked low pressure system over Minnesota and Wisconsin. Extending
south of this system, a cold front extends along the western side of
northern Indiana, through southern Illinois, and on down through
central Arkansas. It's this front that is working east towards the
Lower Ohio Valley. Rain showers have made it about halfway through
the CWA. Model soundings show very little instability and some dry
air near the surface, so the chance for thunder is very limited.
Ahead of the precipitation, southwest winds are gusting from around
20 to 35 mph, but along the leading edge of the precipitation, winds
are veering towards the west or even northwest before backing
towards the southwest again as they ease. Showers can expect to
continue to work east until the front passes.
Tonight, the cold front should begin working into the CWA from the
northwest. High pressure, centered over the Midwest, will cause
winds to veer towards the northwest. With winds between 5-10 mph and
gusts to near 15 mph, cold air advection will begin cooling
temperatures as skies clear. By Friday morning temperatures in
southern Indiana are expected to be in the low 40s. Temperatures
will warm to the southeast into the mid to upper 50s near Clinton
County.
Tomorrow, as the surface high moves east towards the Great Lakes,
our northwest winds will continue to veer towards the northeast.
High temperatures will be limited to the upper 50s to mid 60s which
is about normal for this time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 348 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
Friday Night through Sunday Night...
A cool, dry airmass will remain in place Friday night into Saturday
as high pressure builds east across the Great Lakes. Saturday
morning will be cool with lows ranging from the mid/upper 30s in
southern IN and the Bluegrass to the mid 40s in southern KY. The
rest of the day looks pleasant with a light easterly wind and
afternoon highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Saturday night into Sunday, southerly return flow strengthens
considerably from the southern Plains northeast across the Mid-MS
Valley and Midwest. This occurs between strong high pressure moving
east over the eastern Great Lakes and Interior Northeast, and low
pressure spinning up over the High Plains. While the main LLJ will
remain to our west and northwest during this time, we'll see WAA and
moistening isentropic ascent. The frontal boundary to our south is
forecast to lift back north across the area as a warm front Sunday
morning, and some scattered light rain will be possible. We'll see a
NE to SW gradient in temps, with Sunday morning lows ranging from
the low/mid 40s in the Bluegrass to the low/mid 50s in south-central
KY. The best precip chances lift north to mainly southern
IN/northern KY and points northward by Sunday afternoon. Our area
should be in a drier warm sector environment by Sunday evening.
Temperatures on Sunday should rise into the mid/upper 70s in most
areas. Expect a mild start to Monday, with lows in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.
Monday through Wednesday...
Highly amplified upper level flow is in place Monday with a deep
upper level trough evolving eastward over the Rockies and High
Plains. Downstream ridging will exist over much of the eastern
United States. A strong subtropical ridge is forecast to be anchored
over FL and the far western Atlantic, with the Plains low pressure
system expected to accelerate northeastward through the Upper
Midwest and Canada. Locally, we will see strengthening deep-layer SW
flow and additional WAA. We look to stay fairly dry on Monday with
an absence of deeper moisture and focused forcing. This should allow
temps to soar into the mid 70s to near 80 degrees Monday afternoon.
Expect breezy southerly winds Monday, with gusts of 20-30 mph
possible.
Widespread rain chances will increase on Tuesday, particularly
during the afternoon and evening hours, ahead of an approaching
cold front. There should be at least a chance for thunderstorms
Tuesday, depending on the thermodynamics. Rain chances are tapering
off by Wednesday as we see drier air filter in from the northwest in
the wake of the cold front.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024
Surface cold front has cleared KHNB and will clear KSDF just before
TAF issuance. Winds at KHNB/KSDF will swing around to the northwest
with clearing skies to follow shortly. Over at KLEX/KBWG the front
should push through between 01/08-09Z. Prior to the frontal
passage, a mix of IFR/MVFR cigs will likely be seen with improving
conditions behind the front prior to sunrise. For the remainder of
the period, VFR conditions are expected with northerly winds at the
terminals through the day.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......CJP
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM....EBW
AVIATION.....MJ
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 1, 1:18 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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