JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 7:18 AM EDT240
FXUS63 KJKL 311118
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
718 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm weather will persist through this afternoon with dry
conditions holding for most until this evening.
- A wetting rainfall is expected as a cold front moves through the
area tonight into early Friday morning.
- Cooler temperatures will arrive for Friday into Saturday, with
warmer readings returning to start next week - threatening daily
records by Tuesday.
- The next chance for a more widespread measurable rainfall
arrives Tuesday into Wednesday of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2024
Cold front arrives from the west tonight into Friday bringing
widespread measurable rainfall, with highest QPF roughly along and
west of the Interstate 75 corridor, where the chance for heavier
showers and storms will exist with the likely presence of
sufficient higher moisture and marginal instability. The upper
level trough will speedily lift out of the region tonight, with
the front losing its upper support as the front is moving across
the area. With rising mid-level heights through the day Friday,
expect rain to diminish and then dissipate with time as the front
is exiting east, which will mean lowest QPF with this system is
expected in the far east and southeast along the Virginia border.
Before the front arrives tonight, near-record to record warmth is
expected in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees today with a breezy
and well-mixed atmosphere, with maximum wind gusts in the 20 to
30 mph range during the afternoon out of the southwest. London's
record high is 81 degrees, but Jackson's is only 78 degrees, so
the best chance for tying or setting a new record high will be at
Jackson. How high temperatures actually get will be dependent
largely on cloud cover this afternoon, which will be largely on
the increase from the west and southwest. Temperatures will be 10
to 15 degrees cooler Friday behind the front, but still only
returning to within a few degrees of normal for the first day of
November.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 408 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2024
Saturday, Gulf moisture surges north into the OK/TX area ahead of a
deepening Western US trough. Generally this will result in light
easterly winds across Eastern Kentucky, with highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s. There may be a slight chance of a shower or two
early Saturday, mainly along and south of KY-80/Hal Rogers
Parkway. Otherwise, dry weather is expected across the area. In
the evening expect partly cloudy skies with lows in the low 40s in
valleys, and upper 40s to low 50s along ridgetops. Increasing
clouds can be expected heading into Sunday morning, with mostly
cloudy skies by sunrise. Showers will move in from the north and
west through the day and winds will shift from easterly in the
morning to out of the south by afternoon. This will lead to highs
in the mid to upper 70s. At this time, showers look to remain
along and north of the KY-80/Hal Rogers Parkway, and remain light
in nature. Skies will remain mostly cloudy into the night, leaving
lows up, in the 50s.
Monday and beyond, the Western US trough digs deeper, spilling
into southern NM and AZ with abundant gulf moisture still riding
the boundary between the trough in the west and a negatively
tilted ridge essentially encompassing much of the East Coast.
Showers should avoid most of the forecast area Monday, however
there is still a slight chance of seeing a shower or two along and
north of Interstate 64. Otherwise dry conditions look to prevail.
With southerly winds ahead of a potential cold front, highs will
creep into the upper 70s across eastern Kentucky. Lows will
generally range in the mid 50s in valleys, to upper 50s and lower
60s along ridgetops.
Tuesday is much of the same, with southerly flow surging daytime
temperatures into the upper 70s to low 80s across the area.
This will bring existing record highs in play, with the daily
records for Jackson the most likely to be threatened, where the
existing daily record is 79 degrees. Models are depicting a cold
front moving through the state later in the day, leading to
showers through Wednesday. Wednesday and Thursday winds are
expected to shift to more of a west to northwest wind leading some
to colder highs in the low 70s Wednesday, and mid 60s by
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2024
VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period. Any
river valley fog out there this morning will not impact TAF sites.
LLWS is will diminish by 14z as winds as even modest surface
heating will allow for at least some mixing to occur. Lower clouds
do arrive from the west late in the period ahead of a a band of
showers with a cold front Thursday evening, with MVFR cigs
depicted toward 06z at KSYM, then moving east and southeast across
the remainder of the TAF sites through 12z, with the possible
exception of KSJS. Winds will be mainly out of the south to
southwest at around 5 kts for the next couple of hours, but will
increase through the morning south and southwest by afternoon of
10 to 15 kts along with higher gusts to the 20+ kts range.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 7:18 AM EDT---------------
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