MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 6:35 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...533
FXUS64 KMOB 271135
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
635 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024
VFR conditions should generally prevail over the next 24 hours.
Any lingering patchy fog that developed this morning should
dissipate within the next couple of hours. Winds will generally be
out of the north, however, winds over the southern half of the
local area should shift to a more southerly flow this afternoon.
Patchy fog development may once again be possible late tonight
into the early morning hours on Monday. /96
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 517 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday night)
Issued at 517 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024
Zonal flow aloft today will become more northerly tomorrow as a
weak upper trough passes overhead and an upper ridge over the
south central US builds eastward. At the surface, a frontal
boundary has stalled just to the north of our local area across
Central AL and MS. With the front remaining to our north, dry and
unseasonably warm conditions will continue today. Similar to the
past few days, highs today north of the immediate coast will reach
the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. These temperatures are
roughly 10 to 15 degrees above average for this time of year and
may once again approach, tie, or even break previous records. The
following are the records and forecasted temperatures for both
KMOB and KPNS for today:
KMOB: 10/27 Record is 88; forecast is 89
KPNS: 10/27 Record is 87; forecast is 87
Lows tonight will once again range from the upper 50s to low 60s
inland and mid 60s along the coast. Patchy, early morning fog cannot
be ruled out again thanks to increased boundary-layer moisture,
light winds, and clear skies.
By Monday, high pressure builds over the Appalachians allowing for a
CAD (cold air damming) event to develop over portions of Georgia and
the Carolinas. For our local area, this synoptic setup will help to
send a weak 'backdoor cold front' across the area from east to west.
Although we are not expecting any cold air to move in behind it,
this front will help to increase southeasterly winds across the
area, resulting in a decrease in maximum temps, an increase in
minimum temps, and an increase in dew points (due to the onshore
component of the wind) starting Monday and lingering into the long
term period. Due to the progression of the boundary, highs on Monday
will range from the low to mid 80s east of I-65 to the upper 80s
west. A Low Risk of rip currents will continue through Monday. The
rip current risk increases quickly in the wake of the backdoor cold
front due to the increase in marine winds and surf. A Moderate risk
is expected for Monday night, becoming a High risk by Tuesday. /96
SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 517 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024
No significant changes from the previous forecasts during this
timeframe. Still mostly dry through the period, with only a very
slight chance of showers over western counties on Thursday and
Thursday evening. Ridging aloft continues Tuesday and Wednesday,
but gets shunted off just our south and east by Thursday, with a
more southwesterly flow aloft developing over our area. Some
shortwave energy embedded in the southwest flow aloft, combined
with a weak front that will moving into interior portions of the
southeast CONUS, could result in the very slight rain chance on
Thursday noted above. Persistent surface high pressure to our
southeast will likely prevent the weak front from moving far
enough south to get to our area, but increased moisture out ahead
of the front and daytime heating could allow for a few showers or
storms (with the best chances - no more than about a 20 percent
PoP - over interior southeast Mississippi. It is still a little
questionable as to whether or not that slight PoP pans out though
and the old "don't forecast rain in a drought" rule is most likely
what the result will be (so don't alter your outdoor plans for
Halloween night quite yet). Daytime temperatures remain several
degrees above average during most of the extended term period, but
the recent span of record high temperatures will come to an end,
with highs topping out in the low to mid 80s each afternoon.
Nighttime lows will range from the upper 50s and lower 60s over
inland areas to the mid 60s to near 70 closer to and along the
coast. Beach Note: The risk for rip currents increases to a HIGH
by Tuesday and will likely continue to remain elevated through at
least Thursday based on the rip current MOS probabilities. 12/DS
MARINE...
Issued at 517 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024
A light diurnal wind pattern is expected to continue today
with onshore winds developing during the day then becoming offshore
tonight. A light to moderate easterly flow develops on Monday,
increasing to moderate to occasionally strong through midweek. Seas
are also expected to build through midweek. Exercise caution
headlines will likely become necessary over the Gulf for both winds
and seas by midweek, and Small Craft Advisory conditions cannot be
ruled out. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 89 60 87 63 83 66 82 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0
Pensacola 87 64 83 67 81 70 80 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 84 66 83 67 82 69 82 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 89 57 87 58 84 62 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 88 57 89 58 85 61 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 86 57 86 58 82 62 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 90 57 86 58 85 62 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 6:35 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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