MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 6:26 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...417
FXUS64 KMOB 261126
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
626 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024
VFR conditions should generally prevail over the next 24 hours.
Any lingering patchy fog that developed this morning should
dissipate within the next couple of hours. Winds will generally be
out of the north, however, winds over the southern half of the
local area should shift to southeasterly to southerly this
afternoon. Patchy fog development may once again be possible late
tonight into the early morning hours on Saturday. /96
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 446 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday night)
Issued at 446 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024
A zonal upper-level flow pattern will continue through much of
the period as an upper longwave trough progresses eastwards across
the Great Lakes region. A weak, embedded shortwave trough, also
moving within the flow aloft, looks to pass overhead Sunday
evening. In its wake, flow aloft becomes northerly as an upper
ridge begins to build over the south central US. At the surface,
an elongated high pressure, stretching across the Deep South,
remains in control of our local weather. A frontal boundary,
currently located across central Arkansas and western Tennessee,
will continue to push southeastward today, however, it looks to
stall across Northern/Central AL and MS tonight as the longwave
trough accelerates and essentially leaves the front behind. With
the front remaining to our north, dry and unseasonably warm
conditions will continue through the near term period. Similar to
the past few days, highs north of the immediate coast will reach
the upper 80s to around 90 degrees for both today and tomorrow.
These temperatures are roughly 10 to 15 degrees above average for
this time of year and may once again approach, tie, or even break
previous records. The following are the records and forecasted
temperatures for both KMOB and KPNS for this weekend:
KMOB
10/26: Record is 87; forecast is 88
10/27: Record is 88; forecast is 87
KPNS
10/26: Record is 87; forecast is 86
10/27: Record is 87; forecast is 85
Lows will also be rather mild for this time of year, with
temperatures dipping into the mid to upper 50s inland and low to
mid 60s along the coast (roughly 7 to 12 degrees above average).
Patchy, early morning fog cannot be ruled out each night thanks to
increased boundary-layer moisture out ahead of the front, light
winds, and clear skies. A Low Risk of rip currents is expected
through the weekend. /96
SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 446 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024
Little change in the short and extended as weak upper troughing
Monday will give way to a rather stout ridge by Tuesday and into
early Wednesday. The ridging drifts just to the east of the area
Wednesday night and Tuesday, with subtle shortwave activity noted
in the more southwesterly flow aloft. This could result in an
isolated shower or two over our western counties (primarily
interior southeast MS) on Thursday, but PoPs only 20 percent or
less and there is some question as to how much moisture return
would allow for that. Other than that rainfree conditions will
prevail through the extended period with no appreciable rain
chances into the early part of next month. Temperatures remain in
the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday, but cool ever so slightly to the
low to mid 80s (still above normal for this time of the year, but
not at record high levels) Tuesday through Friday. Nighttime lows
will range from the upper 60s and lower 60s over far northern
counties to the mid/upper 60s closer to the coast (with even a few
lower 70s possible along the beaches and barrier islands).
Increasing winds and resultant surf along the coast likely lead to
an increasing rip current risk along the beaches by the middle
part of next week. DS/12
MARINE...
Issued at 446 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024
A light diurnal wind pattern is expected to continue
through the weekend, with onshore winds developing during the day
then becoming offshore at night. A light to moderate easterly flow
develops on Monday, increasing to moderate to occasionally strong
through midweek. Seas are also expected to build through midweek.
Exercise caution headlines will likely become necessary over the
Gulf for both winds and seas by midweek, and Small Craft Advisory
conditions cannot be ruled out. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 88 60 87 60 85 63 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 86 65 85 64 81 65 80 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 85 68 84 66 82 65 82 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 90 57 88 57 86 58 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 89 57 87 57 86 58 85 60 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 88 56 86 57 83 58 82 61 / 0 0 10 10 0 0 0 0
Crestview 90 56 89 57 86 58 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 6:26 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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