PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 11:23 PM EDT102
FXUS61 KPBZ 300323
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1123 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide dry and warm weather into early
Thursday. Showers return late Thursday and Thursday night with
a crossing cold front. Cooler and dry weather is then expected
through Saturday under high pressure.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather with patches of high clouds
- Low temperatures 15 degrees above normal
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Update...
Adjusted hourly and overnight low temperatures warmer based on
the latest surface observations and guidance.
Previous discussion...
Strong mixing in southwest flow will continue into this evening as
temperatures begin to drop. Breezy conditions are expected to
persist tonight with winds around 5-10 mph helping overnight low
temperatures remain warm, around 15 degrees above average. Patches
of high clouds are expected as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and warmer through early Thursday
- Showers return late Thursday and Thursday night with a cold
front
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Ridging at 500mb will continue to dominate on Wednesday and into
Thursday as well, as the axis slowly trudges to and then off of the
Atlantic Coast. This will continue dry weather, although rounds
of high clouds will top the ridge and spread across our region
from time to time. Continued high 500mb heights and 850
temperatures of up to 13C both support high temperatures of up
to 20 degrees above normal both Wednesday and Thursday -
precipitation should hold off long enough Thursday to allow for
the warmth. See the Climate section for information on potential
record highs.
As the ridge shifts east Thursday, a shortwave trough will cross
the northern Plains Wednesday night and the Great Lakes on
Thursday, flattening out as it does so, as well as pushing a
cold front towards our region. Associated showers are expected
to begin to arrive starting Thursday afternoon and continuing
Thursday night. Lift will be supplied by the boundary and by
right- entrance region jet dynamics, and categorical PoPs seem
appropriate. QPF totals will be hindered by several factors,
including dry antecedent air, the speed of the front, non-
favorable diurnal timing for convective rainfall rates, and only
a brief window of favorable precipitable water levels of 1.3 to
1.4 inches. Still, NBM probabilities of more than 0.25 inch of
rain range from 40% to 70%, highest northwest of Pittsburgh, so
there is the potential a much-needed wetting rain. The front is
expected to cross most of the region by sunrise Friday with
fairly high confidence, thus drier air and cooler temperatures
will begin to build in.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Cooler and dry weather returning Friday
- Dry with a warming trend into Sunday
- Rain chances return Sunday night and Monday
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Model ensembles indicate the lingering upper trough will cross
the Upper Ohio Valley region Friday, as surface high pressure
begins to build in. Any morning showers will end, with dry and
cooler weather then expected.
A ridge is then progged to build across the Upper Ohio Valley
region Saturday and Sunday, with mainly dry and warmer weather
expected. Ensembles then indicate moisture and shortwave
supported lift will track from SW-NE along the northern
periphery of the ridge Sunday night and Monday. Operational
models differ on the timing of these shortwaves, the strength
of the ridge, and the resulting placement of the precipitation.
Stayed close to the ensemble blend to account for the
uncertainty, which results in chance POPs returning to the
forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR will prevail through the TAF period with surface high
pressure and strong upper ridging in place. Winds should subside
overnight, though occasional overnight gusts are possible. A
tight pressure gradient will once again create gusty conditions
with daytime mixing after sunrise on Wednesday. SW'ly gusts near
20 knots are expected. Gusty conditions are likely to persist
Wednesday night in advance of the next system.
LLWS is possible overnight from around 03-13z primarily at
FKL/DUJ as a stout low- level jet crosses the area.
.Outlook...
An upper level shortwave and surface cold front will cross the
region Thursday late afternoon into Friday with chances for
rain and restrictions.
Ensembles favor high pressure redeveloping over the region by
Friday afternoon through the weekend to promote VFR and light
wind conditions.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A few locations could approach, or break, record high
temperatures through Thursday.
Record High Temperatures / Forecast High
Wed October 30:
KDUJ: 73/1971 74
KHLG: 78/1942 78
KPHD: 77/2009, 1971 79
Thu October 31:
KPIT: 79/1950, 1976 78
KDUJ: 72/2003 74
KMGW: 80/1896 80
KHLG: 78/1950, 1933 78
KPHD: 77/1971 79
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM/Lupo
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...Rackley/AK
CLIMATE...
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 11:23 PM EDT---------------
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