BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 7:13 AM EDT503
FXUS61 KBOX 261113
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
713 AM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A moisture-starved cold front crossing our region today will
increase winds, but not provide much more than some clouds for a
time. Looking at a period of below normal temperatures Sunday
into Monday. Then another significant warm up is anticipated
toward the middle of next week. The next chance of any showers
will be sometime Thursday night or Friday as a cold front moves
through.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A dry cold front should cross our region with a period of clouds
this morning. Once the colder air arrives and the sun breaks
out, mixing should permit NW wind gusts up to 30 mph. Despite
the arrival of colder air, the higher starting point for
temperatures this morning should lead to similar or slightly
higher max temperatures today given the dry airmass.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
High pressure should move from the Great Lakes tonight to the
Mid Atlantic coast by Sunday evening. This will keep southern
New England within the colder NW flow tonight into Sunday.
Expecting temperatures to be 5-10 degree lower than what we have
seen recently, which will also be below normal for late October.
Gusty winds gradually diminish tonight into Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key points...
* Below normal temperatures expected Sunday and Monday following
cold front passage
* Ridging builds back in Tuesday; return of higher than normal
temperatures midweek with some spots getting close to 80 on
Halloween
* Dry conditions prevail for most of the week preceding possible
light rain Friday
Discussion...
Surface temperatures Sunday and Monday are expected to be colder
than normal as a trough settles over New England. Temperatures
at 925 mb across deterministic models sit around 0C by early
Sunday morning. Monday morning looks to be even cooler, and the
ECMWF has 925 mb temps at -3C across much of MA. Monday night
looks to be dry and winds may be light, so radiational cooling
looks favorable. Overnight lows both of these nights are likely
to be in the 20s and 30s all across southern New England.
Ridging is expected to build back in around Tuesday, with the
ridge axis ending up over southern New England around 00z
Thursday. The dry conditions we've been seeing could help high
temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday "overachieve." Ensembles
suggest around a 30 percent chance of surface temperatures
higher than 75F across eastern MA and an 40 to 60 percent chance
in the middle CT Valley. Across deterministic guidance, 925 mb
temps are forecast from 15C to 18C for much of Thursday. Bottom
line, we could get close to 80 in some spots this Halloween.
Strong ridging is still forecast to begin its return around
Tuesday. Ensemble guidance indicated 850 mb temperatures around
+13C, and up to +15C towards eastern MA. This is a good
indicator for warm temperatures during the day midweek, and this
is supported by probabilites for temperatures over 70F sitting
at 45 to 55 percent as of the last 12Z LREF run for Wednesday,
and that chance gets even higher Thursday; up to 91 percent
across eastern MA and parts of the CT Valley, and generally
above 60 percent across the rest of southern New England.
Ensembles hint at highs above 75F across eastern MA and the
southern CT Valley, so that will be something to continue
monitoring.
Friday could bring our next long-awaited chance of rain
following another cold frontal passage. The GEFS and ENS in
particular show around a 15% to 30% chance of rainfall more than
0.01" across much of MA into northern CT and RI, with lower
probs for SE MA and the Cape and Islands. Probs are highest
across western MA into NW CT. However, with how dry it has been,
I would not be surprised if these chances diminish as time goes
on.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Sunday...High confidence.
Generally VFR today through Sunday. Light W winds this morning
become gusty NW winds towards afternoon. NW winds continue
tonight, then shift W Sunday. Not quite as gusty tonight or
Sunday.
KBOS TAF...High confidence.
KBDL TAF...High confidence.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/
Sunday Night through Monday: VFR. Breezy.
Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Sunday...High confidence.
A cold front should cross the waters today leading to gusty
northwest winds late. Small Craft Advisories continue for the
outer MA coastal waters into at least this morning, and will
likely be needed again later today into tonight. Although there
should be a brief lull in the conditions, think it is not
worthwhile to time out a Small Craft Advisory to that level of
detail across some of the outer MA coastal waters.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.
Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions will continue this weekend with increasing
winds, which will lead to a continued elevated fire weather
risk.
For today, minimum RH values expected between 35-50 percent
with NW gusts up to 30 mph.
For Sunday, minimum RH values anticipated between 25-40 percent
with NW gusts up to 25 mph.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for MAZ002>024-
026.
RI...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ250-254-255.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT
Sunday for ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Hrencecin
AVIATION...Belk/Hrencecin
MARINE...Belk/Hrencecin
FIRE WEATHER...Belk/Hrencecin
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 7:13 AM EDT----------------
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