ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 3:15 AM EDT553
FXUS61 KILN 280715
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
315 AM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Southerly flow returns to the region and we will experience a
notable warm up mid week, as temperatures on Tuesday and
Wednesday rise to nearly 20 degrees above normal. In addition,
some breezy conditions are expected mid week. The next chance
for precipitation arrives on Thursday as a cold front moves
through the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The Ohio Valley will be on the cusp of a pattern change on
Monday as 500H ridging moves over the region with deep troughing
moving into the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure moves
east toward New England south a warm front will begin to lift
north through the ILN CWA. As such, we'll slowly see a subtle
uptick in southerly winds and an increase in cloud cover
through the afternoon hours on Monday as some moisture is pumped
into the region. The area remains dry and temperatures climb to
the low 70s thanks to the weak WAA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Strong southwesterly flow/ WAA continues to work its way into
our region as a LLJ sets up from the TX panhandle all the way
through the Great Lakes, pumping Gulf air into the Ohio Valley.
This influx of warmth and moisture will have a couple of notable
impacts on our sensible weather.
First, the low temperatures Monday night will be a whopping ~20
degrees warmer than they were on Sunday night, only falling to
the mid 50s. Similarly, the high temperatures on Tuesday are
forecast to reach near record (or record?) highs in the upper
70s/ low 80s. Current records are...
CVG 83F 1927
CMH 80F 1922, 1900
DAY 82F 1900
As the warm front lifts, the LLJ and isentropic lift might be
enough to force a shower north of I-70 during the late night
hours Monday into Tuesday, however, confidence is low.
Second, breezy conditions are expected thanks to the strong LLJ
and tight pressure gradient that will be in place. Wind gusts
start to increase during the overnight hours into Tuesday and
should be gusting to ~30 MPH during the day Tuesday,
particularly in eastern/northern Indiana/ west central/ northern
Ohio.
Given the uptick in winds and antecedent dry conditions, there
has been some chatter regarding fire weather, particularly on
Tuesday. However, the LLJ will be pumping moist Gulf air into
the region so, despite the gusty conditions and mixing, the
current thinking is that RHs won't be quite low enough to merit
too much concern. This will be something to watch.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid level ridging in place across the upper Ohio Valley Tuesday
night will shift off to the east through the day on Wednesday ahead
of a mid level short wave dropping down across the upper Mississippi
Valley. With a tight pressure gradient still in place across our
area, breezy southwest winds will lead to near record temperatures
on Wednesday with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
The mid level short wave will move east across the Great Lakes
Thursday into Friday, helping to push a cold front southeast across
the Ohio Valley. Increasing southerly flow ahead of this and
developing moisture advection will result in widespread showers
spreading southeast across our area through the day on Thursday.
Instability looks to remain fairly marginal so think any thunder
chance will be limited. Breezy conditions will continue on Thursday
with daytime temperatures ranging from the upper 60s in the far
northwest to the upper 70s in the far southeast.
Pcpn will taper off from the northwest Thursday night as the cold
front moves southeast of our area. Surface high pressure and a
cooler, drier airmass will build into the region Friday into
Saturday. Highs on Friday will only be in the upper 50s to lower 60s
with highs on Saturday in the low to mid 60s. Models appear to be
trending slower with the next system for early next week so will
only allow for some lower end pops across our northwest on Sunday.
Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions through the period with the exception of some
river valley fog possible at KLUK. Given how dry things are,
confidence on this is medium... moisture from the river might be
enough to overcome the very dry air. For now, have only dropped
the site to MVFR for a few hour period during the early morning
hours. Any fog overnight will dissipate come sunrise.
Calm winds overnight will start to increase on Monday to 8-10
knots and swing to out of the south as a warm front lifts
through the area. Showers should remain well north of all TAF
sites but KCMH/KLCK/KDAY might see some lowered CIGs Monday late
into Tuesday. Right now, still anticipating everything to
remain VFR.
OUTLOOK...Gusty winds will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CA
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 3:15 AM EDT---------------
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