JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 3:35 PM EDT554
FXUS63 KJKL 271935
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
335 PM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet weather remains through mid-week with our next best chance
of rain arriving late Thursday.
- Temperatures will moderate from near normal this afternoon to
above normal through the middle of the new week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 335 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2024
19Z sfc analysis shows an inverted trough still evident off to the
southeast of this part of the state between high pressure to the
north and east. This has kept some clouds nearby for the
Middlesboro area along with higher dewpoints but the rest of the
area has been clear and drier. Amid light and variable winds,
temperatures climbed into the mid and upper 60s most places.
Meanwhile, dewpoints varied from the lower 30s north to the mid
and upper 40s in the far southeast.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in very
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict large 5h troughing to the northeast
rotating away from the Ohio Valley into the start of the new work
while ridging will gradually build northeast into the area through
12Z Tuesday. This will mean weakening northwest mid level flow
aloft with less in the way of energy passing over eastern Kentucky
keeping the conditions aloft rather quiet. Meanwhile, upstream,
the large Pacific trough will continue to work onshore and move
inland along the West Coast helping to support the return of
higher heights in the East. Given the small spread among the
models have favored the NBM as the starting point for the forecast
grids with mainly temperature adjustments in the near term to
account for some terrain differences tonight and Monday night.
Sensible weather features chilly starts to the days, particularly
in the valleys, but warm conditions in the afternoon as high
pressure at the sfc keeps the weather dry and quiet. Look for a
nearby 850mb front to keep some moisture around off the sfc and
this could hinder mixing during the days and radiative cooling at
night. Accordingly, have not adjusted temperatures and dewpoints
as much as normal in a typical dry sfc high pressure scenario
both nights and also during the day, Monday. This will also likely
keep the fog from being too extensive both nights, as well,
except for along the main stem river valleys and near bodies of
water.
The changes to the NBM starting point mainly consisted of
adjusting the hourly T grids for more terrain distinction and a
faster valley drop off in the evenings both tonight and tomorrow
night. Temperatures were also brought up a notch for highs, Monday
along with slightly drier dewpoints that afternoon. As for PoPs:
kept them near zero through the period in line with all guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2024
We begin the period with upper level high taking over the Southeast
and ridging extending into the Ohio Valley. This coupled with ample
warm air advection will lead to above normal temperatures and
increasing moisture through the mid-week. Given this leaned a little
warmer for afternoon highs and most locations will see upper 70s to
near 80 degrees through Thursday. A cold front approaches the area
Thursday and this coupled with decent mixing will lead to a breezy
afternoon, with gusts of 20-25 mph common. The NBM seems to be
struggling with this idea and will depend on cloud cover. However,
many of the ensembles are showing a decent signal for gusty winds
Thursday afternoon, with the EPS showing much of the area would have
around a 70-90 percent of seeing gusts of 30 mph or greater. This
front along with lift from an the entrance region of the upper level
jet streak will provide solid shot of seeing measureable rain across
the area Thursday into Thursday night. That said, the ensembles are
showing around a 40 to 70 percent chance of seeing greater a quarter
of inch, with the best shot of this being in the Bluegrass region.
In the wake of this front, high pressure and mid-level shortwave
ridging push into the area. This will usher in northerly flow to end
the work week. This will help drop the afternoon highs on Friday
back closer to normal, with highs in the mid to upper 60s. There is
decent agreement that the surface high then pulls eastward and
southerly flow kicks back in. This coupled with rising heights will
allow temperatures to moderate back above normal for the weekend.
The NBM is still trying to kick off a small chance (generally in the
20-30 percent chance range) of rain showers Sunday. However, not
particularly good agreement on this right now, with the EPS/GEPS
being most aggressive with the idea of moving activity back into the
Ohio Valley.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2024
VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through the forecast
period with light and variable winds under 5 knots. A deck of
lower level moisture seen in the models tonight may lead to a
layer of stratus or interfere with the standard river valley fog
formation as moisture seeps back into the area. For now, though,
have gone with limited fog in the valleys tonight not affecting
and of the TAF sites.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GINNICK/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 3:35 PM EDT---------------
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