BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 7:22 PM EDT103
FXUS61 KBOX 252322
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
722 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A moisture-starved cold front crossing our region Saturday will
increase winds, but not provide much more than some clouds for
a time. Looking at a period of below normal temperatures Sunday
into Monday. Then another significant warm up is anticipated
toward the middle of next week. The next chance of any showers
will be sometime Thursday night or Friday as a cold front moves
through.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
7:30 PM Update...
Returns on radar associated with tonight's expected cold front
have dissipated as they move into the Albany area. With
dewpoints across southern New England ranging from the high 20s
to around 40F, any radar returns that are able to cross the
Berkshires have essentially zero chance of actually reaching the
ground.
Previous update...
High pressure continues to provide tranquil weather across the
region this afternoon ahead of a modest mid level shortwave
approaching from the Great Lakes. This will move through overnight
with an associated dry cold front early Saturday morning and we'll
see increasing clouds starting this evening first in the upper
levels then the mid and low levels. Given light winds and slowly
increasing clouds, some radiational cooling is expected with lows
reaching the upper 30s and low 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The dry cold front moves through Saturday morning while the pressure
gradient increases, meaning the first half of the weekend will be
dry and seasonable, but gusty. NW winds will be out of the NW with
gusts as high as 25-35 mph as the boundary layer mixes up to 800 mb
on cold advection. Temperatures will top out in the mid to upper
60s. Overnight winds calm down as broad high pressure returns.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* Below normal temperatures expected Sunday and Monday
* Ridging to build in again by mid next week, with temperatures
soaring back into the 70s and perhaps nudging close to 80 for
Halloween
* Dry conditions through the period with the next chance for light
precipitation coming with a cold front closer to next weekend
A brief break in this fall's persistent ridging emerges the second
half the weekend as trough settles over New England. Temperatures
aloft are some of the coldest we've seen this season, dropping to a
few degrees below 0C, leading to highs in the 50s and lows in the
20s. Some minor shortwave blips in the trough will increase rain
chances north of our CWA, across NH and VT where some snowflakes may
even mix in with showers!, but expecting any precipitation to fizzle
before crossing the border into our CWA.
In an almost remarkable fashion, strong ridging builds back over
the eastern CONUS starting on Tuesday with the ridge axis cresting
over SNE around 00Z Thursday. With high pressure anchored over the
mid Atlantic, expecting temperatures to warm a few degrees each day
with another string of 70 degree days expected Wednesday through
Friday. With low dewpoints, deleafing trees, and very dry soils,
anticipating that we will "overachieve" on temperatures, especially
Wednesday and Thursday given downsloping westerly flow. With 850mb
temps soaring towards 14C, there is genuine possibility that a few
sites hit 80F on Halloween. For reference, record high temperatures
on Halloween are 83F in PVD, 81F in BOS, and 82F at BDL. In any
case, we are on track to see a top 5 warmest Halloween, so the kids
heading out for trick or treating will be able to showcase their
costumes without the need for layering up!
Next chance for rain comes beyond Thursday when a cold front brings
us, briefly back to temperature reality. Not putting a lot of eggs
in the precip basket with ensemble probabilities yielding just a 10-
20 percent of 0.1" of QPF through next Saturday.
There is strong global guidance consensus that above normal
temperatures will be with us into the first week of November and
perhaps beyond with, unfortunately, little chance for much needed
precipitation. CPC corroborates these trends in their 8-14 day
outlooks with a strong signal for above normal temps and below
normal precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
High confidence.
VFR tonight, with lower end VFR for late tonight into Saturday.
A brief period of MVFR ceilings possible across the higher
terrain into Saturday morning. Gusty NW winds developing
Saturday behind the passage of a cold front, diminishing
overnight.
KBOS TAF...High confidence.
KBDL TAF...High confidence.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/
Sunday through Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Monday through Tuesday: VFR.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Saturday night...High confidence.
Rough seas will linger overnight. A cold front should cross the
waters Saturday leading to gusty northwest winds late in the
day. Small Craft Advisories continue for the outer MA coastal
waters into at least Saturday morning for hazardous seas and
will likely be needed again later Saturday.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.
Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
For today, expecting minimum relative humidity values of 30-40
percent across the interior, and 40-60 percent towards the coast
and SE MA. However, light winds expected, mostly below 10 mph.
Dry conditions will continue this weekend with increasing winds,
which will lead to renewed elevated fire weather risk.
For Saturday, minimum RH values expected between 35-50 percent
with NW gusts up to 30 mph.
For Sunday, minimum RH values anticipated between 25-45 percent
with NW gusts up to 25 mph.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for CTZ002>004.
MA...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for MAZ002>024-
026.
RI...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for RIZ001>004-
006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ250-255.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW/KS
NEAR TERM...BW/KS
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...BW/KS
MARINE...BW/KS
FIRE WEATHER...BW/KS
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 7:22 PM EDT----------------
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