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800 FXUS64 KMOB 222106AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL406 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Wednesday)Issued at 406 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024A combination of an upper low off the East Coast and upper level high pressure over old Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico will create dry northwesterly upper flow over the Southeast through mid week. A surface ridge that has set up along the Appalachians will bring a general northeast to easterly flow to land areas through Wednesday. An upper level shortwave will move southeast through the upper flow over the Southeast late Wednesday through Wednesday night, moving a weak cold front south over eastern portions of the Southeast. A surface ridge stretching southwest along the Appalachians sees the southern end become more east/west over the northern Gulf coast. Guidance is advertising a slug of moisture moving west in this flow over the northern Gulf coast today into Wednesday before a band of drier air moves south over the northern Gulf coast ahead of the front. Resultant relative humidity levels over the forecast area remain an issue. For this afternoon, the driest air remains west of the Alabama River. The re-enforcing band of drier air Wednesday will mover drier air back over the entire forecast area. This drier air will create a more hazardous environment for burning. Winds are expected to remain light, tempering the risk.Temperatures remain well above seasonal norms, with high temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid 80s today, mid to upper 80s on Wednesday. Low temperatures tonight and Wednesday night are expected to range from the low to mid 50s wellinland, upper 50s to around 60s south of I-10 to the coast.Even with the continued northeast/easterly flow through the week, the light nature of the winds keep swell on area beaches low through Friday, with a low risk of rip currents through the week. /16&&.SHORT AND LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)Issued at 406 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024An upper ridge will move east across the area Thursday intoThursday night. The ridge will be replaced by a weak upper troughFriday into Saturday as a shortwave moves across the Ohio Valley.This will send a weak front into the area Saturday into Sunday. The lack of significant deep layer moisture return will keep conditions dry through the period. Global models diverge late in the period with the GFS developing an upper low over the southeast early next week, while the ECMWF builds an upper ridge.Due to the uncertainty, will maintain a dry and warm extended period. High temps will be in the mid and upper 80s late in the week, cooling into the low 80s over the weekend into early next week. /13&&.MARINE...Issued at 406 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024A surface ridge stretching northeast along the Appalachians will shift south to the northern Gulf coast through the week. A light to a times moderate northeast to easterly flow becomes a light, more diurnally onshore/offshore flow through the week. No impacts expected over area waters. /16&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 59 86 56 86 58 85 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 63 84 62 84 62 83 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 66 84 65 84 65 84 65 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 55 86 54 88 54 87 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 53 86 54 88 54 87 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 53 84 52 87 54 86 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 55 86 54 88 54 87 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...None.FL...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
