CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 10:12 PM EDT858
FXUS61 KCLE 290212
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1012 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift across the area early Tuesday, ushering
in gusty southwest winds. A cold front will cross Thursday
afternoon and evening with high pressure building in behind it.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Warm front continues to inch closer to the forecast area this
evening. Clouds are becoming more diffuse over NE OH and NW PA
and temperatures are finally starting to respond and drop off
quickly. Meanwhile, lower clouds are entering western Ohio and
will continue to fill in eastward and keep temperatures from
falling too much more tonight. Rain chances still look to
increase after 08z in areas closest to Lake Erie.
Previous Discussion...
Unseasonably warm conditions are returning to the local area as we
get into broad southwesterly flow behind high pressure departing to
the east and low pressure taking shape over the Plains. A warm front
will pass through the region Tuesday morning, ushering in even warmer
temperatures, increasing the dew points and shifting the winds from
today's and tonight's due south or south-southeast to more
southwesterly. A brief period of decent isentropic lift and weak
elevated instability just ahead of the front will support shower
chances for a brief window ahead of the front across far northern and
northeastern Ohio into northwestern Pennsylvania. The brief nature
of the lift and dry antecedent airmass argue against much QPF, and
make it questionable how far south into our area the showers can get
with the greater lift passing just to our north. These shower chances
are confined to a brief window between about 4 AM and 12 PM from
west to east across the area ahead of the front, with each location
seeing a 3 hour or less window of POPs. POPs quickly decrease from
likely (60-70%) over Lake Erie, far northern/northeastern OH and
northwestern PA to slight chance (20%) across our southern counties.
Maintained a slight thunder mention across some of our northern
counties given a bit of MUCAPE to tap. Once the front clears east we
will be dry until Thursday with increasing sun Tuesday afternoon.
Lows tonight will be much milder, in the 40s to low 50s. Highs on
Tuesday will warm well into the 70s for most of us. The higher
terrain east of I-79 in PA may not quite make 70, and parts of
Northwest OH will likely hit the 80-degree mark. See the climate
section below for record highs for Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows
Tuesday night will be quite mild, expected to range from the mid 50s
to lower 60s, near the average highs for this time of year.
Wind gusts on Tuesday across Northwest OH will be around 35 MPH out
of the southwest, with 25 to 30 MPH gusts more common east. There is
some concern that a combination of dead fuels, drought conditions,
and leaf drop may lead to favorable conditions for brush or field fire
spread in Northwest OH on Tuesday, despite rather marginal minimum
RH values of around 40%. Will let future shifts take a better look at
the minimum RH and consider a possible Hazardous Wx Outlook or
Special Wx Statement in Northwest OH. Our forecast RH values are not
quite as low as they are to our west where Fire Wx Watches have been
posted, though the ongoing drought and largely dormant fuels does
increase concern for fire spread despite the fairly high RH values.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The weather pattern will favor very warm temperatures during the mid
week period followed by a cold front with a round of rainfall on
Halloween. A large upper level ridge of high pressure will develop
and hang out just off the Carolina Coast over the next few days. An
active weather pattern will also develop over the Central Plains and
Upper Midwest associated with an upper level trough over the western
CONUS. That unsettled weather pattern will stay west of the Ohio
Valley through early Thursday morning but eventually moving through
our area later on Halloween. We will have a decent pressure gradient
over the region Wednesday through Thursday thanks to a surface high
pressure system just off the East Coast and a developing low
pressure system and cold front moving through the Midwest. Southerly
to southwesterly winds will remain breezy 10 to 20 mph through the
mid week with gusty winds perking up to 30 mph during the midday and
afternoon hours. High temperatures on Wednesday will top out in the
upper 70s to lower 80s with the warmest temps over NCOH and NWOH. We
will likely break some of our daily record high temps on Wednesday.
See the climate section down below for more info.
Clouds and moisture will increase from west to east Wednesday night
into Thursday ahead of a cold front moving through the Great Lakes
and Upper Ohio Valley. It will still be very warm on Thursday with
high temps in the lower to middle 70s but not record breaking warmth
for that particular day. Our rain chances ramp up to 90 to 100
percent POPs by late Thursday afternoon through the late evening
hours. Unfortunately Halloween trick or treat will be wet and soggy
conditions. The cold front and round of rainfall will move through
Thursday night with most of the west weather out of the area by
early Friday morning. The general QPF will average about a quarter
to a third of an inch of rainfall.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
It will be much cooler by the end of this week into the weekend.
High temperatures on Friday will be 20 to 25 degrees cooler than the
previous day only in the lower to middle 50s. An upper level trough
will swing through the Great Lakes region on Friday. It will also be
breezy and mostly overcast due to lake effect clouds.There will be
some lingering post frontal rain showers and some scattered lake
effect rain showers over the Snowbelt region of NEOH and NWPA
through early Friday afternoon. The lake effect clouds will slowly
scattered out Friday night as drier air and high pressure builds
down across the Great Lakes. Temps will fall down into the lower to
middle 30s away from the lakeshore. Sunshine returns on Saturday
with high pressure overhead and high temps into the middle to upper
50s which is near our seasonable norm for the beginning of November.
The back side of the exiting high pressure system will bring the
southerly flow back Sunday through Monday and that will boost our
temps back into the 60s. Sunday looks like a fairly nice and dry
weather day. The next weather system may bring the next chance of
rain by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
In summary, aviation conditions will be VFR through the TAF
period. However, there could be some very brief instances of
MVFR rain toward daybreak on Tuesday. Winds will be important
for the forecast through the period with an incoming low level
jet allowing for some LLWS opportunities overnight. This jet
will then be able to mix down during the day on Tuesday,
allowing for 25 to 35 kt wind gusts through the end of the TAF
period.
This evening, high level clouds and light southerly winds allow
for VFR conditions across the airspace. A warm front will lift
into the region toward daybreak. With the warm front, a low
level jet will enter the region. Surface winds will remain light
around daybreak and the jet will allow for a period of LLWS in
Northwest Ohio with winds quickly accelerating from the surface
to 2000 ft. As the front cascades across the airspace, some rain
chance possible closest to Lake Erie with KCLE and KERI with the
most likely chances of rain and any non-VFR impacts. However,
the overall rain chances are marginal and have some PROB30s into
KTOL and KYNG and with any MVFR at KCLE to highlight the overall
low confidence threat. Conditions will trend toward clearing
with VFR behind the front on Tuesday. The warm sector of the
front will overspread the airspace and allow for efficient
mixing to allow for strong surface winds. This will end any LLWS
threat and south to southwest wind gusts should be in the 25 to
35 kt range with the upper end of that threshold in NW Ohio or
near Lake Erie.
Outlook...Non-VFR likely Thursday afternoon and night in
showers with a cold frontal passage. Southwest winds will
continue to gust 25-35 knots at times Wednesday-Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
The main marine weather concern for much of this week will be
several days with southerly to southwesterly winds increasing 15 to
25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots at times. The winds this evening
will start out southerly 5 to 12 knots but increase tonight to 15 to
20 knots by early Tuesday morning. The offshore flow of 15 to 25
knots will continue through Thursday. We will likely need a Small
Craft Advisory on Tuesday and that headline could last through the
middle of the week. We will let the overnight marine forecaster take
another look at when to start any possible SCA with the overnight
forecast update. Waves will build in the open waters with heights
being 3-5 ft east of the islands on Tuesday. Wednesday into the
Thursday the waves will build to 5-8 ft in the open waters as a cold
front approaches and will remain until after frontal passage late
Thursday night. Winds will subside to 10-20 kts out of the northwest
by Thursday night into Friday. Waves will subside as well to be 2-4
ft by the end of the week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
An anomalously-warm air mass will arrive across the region in
the early to middle part of this week, with the potential for
record high temperatures on Tuesday, October 29th and
Wednesday, October 30th.
Daily Record Warm High Temperatures:
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
10-29 78(1999) 79(1922) 78(1946) 77(1900) 75(1999) 75(1946)
10-30 77(1971) 80(1927) 79(1950) 77(1900) 75(1999) 79(1946)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Griffin
CLIMATE...
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 10:12 PM EDT---------------
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