JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 3:20 PM EDT729
FXUS63 KJKL 261920
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
320 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler, dry air will continue to filter into eastern Kentucky
overnight. Our next best chance of rain will arrive late
Thursday and linger through Friday morning.
- Temperatures will moderate from near normal this weekend back
above normal through the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 320 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2024
Last remnants of shower activity over Bell and Harlan counties will
be exiting the area to the southeast over the next hour or two. It
will take a bit longer for clouds to clear across our southern
zones. Aloft east Kentucky will be under a northwest flow regime.
The axis of some very subtle shortwave energy will pass through the
region tomorrow with little to show for it other than a temporary
increase in high, and possibly mid-level cloudiness from late
tonight through a good portion of the day Sunday. Otherwise, fair,
dry weather with seasonable temperatures can be expected through the
short term. Did include some valley fog across the area, mainly
tomorrow night as a period of increased cloud cover is expected to
blanket the coal fields overnight, helping to keep overnight lows
from totally bottoming out and potentially mitigating any fog
development.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2024
The latest model data still agreeing that high pressure will control
the weather of eastern Kentucky, and surrounding regions, until
early Thursday morning. The guidance is suggesting that, after a few
days of dry conditions and above normal temperatures, a cold front
will move through the region on Thursday. The front is then expected
to slow down, or perhaps even stall, over the region. This will
allow for persistent rain showers to affect eastern Kentucky most of
Thursday, Thursday night, and a good part of Friday. With pretty
much no instability showing up in the model data, went with only
general rain showers Thursday into Friday. Once the boundary finally
moves off to our southeast on Friday, cooler air will filter into
the region once again, leading to below normal highs for Friday. Max
values on that day may only reach the low to mid 60s for most
locations, and only be slightly warmer on Saturday. As usual, high
pressure will provide conditions favorable for ridge valley
temperature differences and late night and early morning valley fog
the first few nights of the extended. No weather hazards expected at
this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2024
Rain showers are currently passing through our far south, with
the potential that KLOZ may see some light rain briefly before
activity pushes further southeast. Low stratus across the heart of
eastern Kentucky associated with a larger swath of clouds moving
southeast has dropped CIGS solidly into MVFR territory for several
terminals. However, as colder, drier air continues to drop
southward into the area behind a departing cold front to our
south, clearing across our north and partial clearing over our
south will gradually improve CIGS during the first few hours of
the forecast period. Otherwise, winds are expected to flow out of
the north-northeast at 5-10 kts through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...RAY
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 3:20 PM EDT---------------
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