PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 6:03 PM CDT877
FXUS63 KPAH 262303
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
603 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler this weekend then warming back up through middle of
next week.
- Next best chance for widespread, meaningful rain comes on
Thursday.
- Back to cooler temperatures to end the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024
Clouds are clearing out of the last bit of western KY this
afternoon. Some high cirrus moves through overnight with a small
shortwave aloft then we're clear through tomorrow. It's cooler this
weekend behind the cold front with sfc high pressure to the north.
Highs are in the upper 60s to lower 70s today and tomorrow with
overnight lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
The high moves off to the east by Monday returning southerly flow.
Rising heights aloft and brief ridging help increase highs on
Monday. Highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s. By Tuesday a large
trof aloft dominates the western CONUS. At the sfc the pressure
gradient tightens and brings breezy winds with gusts of 20-30 mph
possible. This coupled with the drier air and warmer temperatures
(10-15 degrees above average) could lead to some heightened fire
danger and fire weather concerns. Tuesday and Wednesday highs will
be in the low 80s.
This trof then swings a cold front through on Thursday and brings
the best chance for a wetting rain that we've seen since Helene. NBM
shows a greater than 90% chance of a widespread wetting rain (0.1")
and a 60-90% chance of greater than 0.5" of rain in 24 hours.
Temperatures then come back down behind the front with highs in the
60s and 70s into the weekend. Behind this trof we enter a more
unsettled pattern with lower confidence with a few disturbances
moving through keeping some PoPs around into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 603 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024
The TAFs are VFR with light northeast winds.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...DRS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 6:03 PM CDT---------------
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