CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 9:58 AM EDT526
FXUS61 KCLE 271358
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
958 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Ridge of high pressure will remain over the region today through
Wednesday. A strong cold front should sweep eastward across our
region on Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
9:58 AM EDT Update...
Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model
guidance. Please see discussion below for the details.
Previous Discussion...
Aloft, northwesterly to westerly flow and increasing mid/upper-
level isobaric heights affect our region through Monday as a
ridge builds from the northern Rockies and northern Great
Plains. Simultaneously, the surface portion of this ridge
continues to impact our CWA as the core of the ridge shifts from
northern OH and vicinity toward New England. Stabilizing
subsidence accompanying the ridge will allow fair weather to
persist. The evolution of the ridge will allow surface winds to
back and become southerly in northern OH and NW PA by this
afternoon. The southerly surface winds and associated low-level
WAA will then persist through Monday.
Highs are expected to reach the 50's to lower 60's late this
afternoon. The warmest readings are expected in our I-75
corridor counties. Mainly clear sky, easing surface winds, and
low humidity at/near the surface will promote efficient
nocturnal cooling this evening through daybreak Monday, when
lows are expected to reach mainly the 30's in our CWA, but lows
in the 40's are expected over and very near ~60F Lake Erie. Late
afternoon highs are expected to reach the the upper 50's to
lower 60's in NW PA and the 60's in northern OH on Monday as
daytime heating is complemented by low-level WAA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The big story for early to mid week continues to be anomalously
warm conditions, with record highs possible.
Starting off Monday night, a deep mid/upper longwave trough will
amplify over the western CONUS, with a broad mid/upper ridge
amplifying over the central and eastern CONUS through Wednesday in
response to the upstream trough progressing into the Plains. This
mid and upper level pattern combined with an elongated area of
surface ridging shifting offshore of New England and the Mid
Atlantic will set up strong southerly flow and resultant warm air
advection. Temps at 850 mb look to rise to 12-13 C Tuesday and
Wednesday behind a warm front that lifts across the region Monday
night into Tuesday morning. High and mid-level clouds will spread
across the area at times given the deep southerly flow, but even so,
the profiles will be quite dry in the broad warm sector allowing for
decent mixing into the 850 mb layer or above to support highs in the
mid/upper 70s in most areas Tuesday and Wednesday. NW and north
central Ohio could see pockets of 80 degree temperatures both days,
with Wednesday having the best chance. Low temperatures will be mild
too, with mid 40s/low 50s Monday night increasing to mid 50s/low 60s
Tuesday night. A few showers are possible near lakeshore areas
Monday night into Tuesday morning as a weak mid-level shortwave
crests the building ridge and focuses stronger mid-level warm/moist
advection and isentropic ascent near the warm front, but dry low-
levels and the front rapidly lifting northward will keep any showers
very light, with the bulk occurring north of the region.
By Wednesday night, the upstream mid/upper trough will be
weakening/filling as it ejects through the northern Plains due to
the northern and southern stream branches of the jet becoming
disjointed. This will cause the original associated surface low to
weaken while ejecting well north toward James Bay, but as the
leftover southern branch of the mid/upper trough progresses into the
Great Lakes by Thursday, it will actually deepen/dig slightly once
again as it tries to phase with another northern stream trough
dropping through Quebec. Guidance is coming into better agreement
with this, and it should encourage a secondary weak surface low to
develop in Lower Michigan Thursday, aided by a 100-120 knot H3 jet
streak. This synoptic forcing will improve the moisture advection and
lift along and ahead of the cold front, so expect a solid band of
rain showers to spread in from west to east late Wednesday night and
Thursday, so maintained chance PoPs spreading in Wednesday night,
increasing to categorical Thursday. Lows Wednesday night
will continue to be very mild, with mid 50s/low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As mentioned above, the cold front will approach the region
Thursday, with solid forcing in response to a jet streak and
likely secondary low developing in Lower Michigan. This will
lead to widespread showers Thursday. Deterministic and ensemble
guidance are coming into agreement on the frontal passage timing
being Thursday evening into early Thursday night, so expect the
showers to decrease from west to east Thursday night behind the
front. The forcing from the jet will lead to a strongly sheared
warm sector ahead of the front, but the amount of instability
is in question given the rain showers. Current projections are
for very little CAPE, but it does not take much at this time of
year for gusty showers. Kept thunder out of the forecast, but as
stated, gusty winds could accompany somewhat convective
showers. Outside of any convective gusts, a tightening pressure
gradient and 50 knot low-level jet will lead to gusty synoptic
winds Thursday, with SW winds gusting over 35 mph possible at
times.
Any lingering showers Friday morning will end quickly as strong
surface high pressure builds east across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley Friday afternoon and Friday night. This will support skies
becoming mostly sunny, although temperatures will be much cooler as
the mid/upper trough axis briefly brings a cold pool of 850 mb temps
around 0 C across the region. The high will rapidly shift into the
eastern Great Lakes Saturday as the pattern remains progressive and
renewed troughing develops over the western CONUS. This will yield
height rises across the Great Lakes and a warming trend. Some
moisture return in the developing SW flow could lead to a few
showers Saturday, but there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the
timing of the pattern next weekend, so it's possible that Saturday
ends up completely dry.
Highs in the low/mid 70s Thursday will cool into the mid/upper 50s
Friday before warming slightly into the upper 50s/low 60s
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR conditions are expected through Monday morning. High
pressure will move to the Mid-Atlantic States yielding a light
southeast flow at all taf sites this afternoon. A slight
pressure gradient will overcome any land breeze development
tonight and southerly flow albeit light will remain overnight
and strengthen tomorrow.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with rain chances on Wednesday night
into Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds on the lake will continue to diminish this morning, with
mostly light and variable winds expected today, gradually increasing
to 5-10 knots tonight while becoming S. S to SE winds of 5-10 knots
will continue Monday as high pressure departs to the east, before
turning purely S and increasing to 15-20 knots Monday night and 15-
25 knots Tuesday. Winds will gradually turn SW Tuesday night and
Wednesday with speeds staying 15-25 knots before turning WSW at 20-
30 knots late Wednesday night and Thursday as a cold front
approaches from the west. With all of this being said, a long
duration Small Craft headline is likely Tuesday through Thursday for
mainly the winds since the offshore flow will push the highest waves
into the open waters until late Thursday when more of an onshore
component develops.
&&
.CLIMATE...
An anomalously-warm air mass will arrive across the region early
to mid-next week, with the potential for record warm high temperatures
on Tuesday, October 29th and Wednesday, October 30th.
Daily Record Warm High Temperatures
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
10-29 78(1999) 79(1922) 78(1946) 77(1900) 75(1999) 75(1946)
10-30 77(1971) 80(1927) 79(1950) 77(1900) 75(1999) 79(1946)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FZ
NEAR TERM...FZ/Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...FZ
MARINE...Garuckas
CLIMATE...CLE
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 9:58 AM EDT---------------
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