ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 11:25 AM EDT805
FXUS61 KILN 251525
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1125 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
There will be a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms
today as a cold front moves through the region. Southerly flow
ahead of the front will lead to above normal temperatures today.
Drier and more seasonable temperatures will return for
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
First area of showers is pushing off to the east this morning.
There will then be a lull or a decrease in the precipitation
before additional precipitation works into the region later this
afternoon, evening, and into the first part of the night before
pushing out of the region as the front moves through. There is
some limited instability and therefore there is the potential
for some thunderstorms as well.
During the lull in the precipitation today there will also be
less cloud cover and this will allow for temperatures to climb
into the middle 60s to upper 70s. After the front passage,
temperatures will drop down into the 40s overnight tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure will build into the region into the day
on Saturday. This will lead to dry but cool conditions. Highs on
Saturday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The ~1030 mb surface high pressure will be over the Ohio Valley
region Saturday night and we'll likely experience some of the
coldest temperatures of the period with overnight lows falling
to the mid/low 30s. By the start of the work week, the high
continues to shift east across our area and the region remains
dry. However, as upper level ridging moves directly over the
region and southerly flow sets up at the surface, strong warm
air advection arrives and we'll undergo a significant warming
trend. With the WAA, moisture returns to the area and Tds rise
into the upper 50s. Daytime high temperatures reach the
mid/upper 70s mid week before a cold front is poised to move
through.
Ensemble guidance has a decent grasp on timing of this system, with
the front moving through sometime Halloween evening/ overnight.
Instability appears to be meager and QPF footprint will only be
around 0.10-0.25". After this system passes, things get muddled as
ensembles struggle to resolve an upcoming active pattern.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect areas mainly to
the north of I-70 early in the TAF period. Otherwise, expect
most of the activity off to our west this morning to dissipate
as it moves into a drier airmass in place across the region.
A cold front will move southeast across the area later today
and into tonight. A chance for showers and a few thunderstorms
will develop along the front, possibly affecting the southern
TAF sites for an hour or two later this afternoon and will
cover this with a VCSH. Otherwise, expect VFR cigs to prevail
today into tonight, although some periods of MVFR cigs may
develop this evening in the wake of the cold front.
Winds will become south to southwest at 10 to 15 knots ahead of
the front today. As the front moves through, winds will become
westerly and then northwesterly late today and into tonight.
OUTLOOK...Gusty winds possible Tuesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...JGL
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 11:25 AM EDT---------------
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