BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 1:44 PM EDT506
FXUS61 KBOX 241744
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
144 PM EDT Thu Oct 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, seasonable but blustery conditions Saturday will be
followed by a period of colder than normal temperatures Sunday
into Monday. Then another significant warm up is anticipated
toward the middle of next week. The next chance of any showers
will be sometime Thursday night or Friday as a cold front moves
through.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper level trough axis moves off the coast this evening then
offshore tonight as ridging aloft moves into the region.
850-700 MB moisture axis lingers across SE New Eng early this
evening then much drier moves in during tonight as PWATs drop
considerably. So while we expect some clouds over the
Cape/Islands this evening, the trend will be for clearing skies
overnight here, with mainly clear skies further inland. The
surface high pres builds across NY/PA tonight and there is
enough gradient for a modest wind which will limit radiational
cooling somewhat, especially near the coast. In fact, it will
be gusty for the first half of the night over the Cape/Islands
with N wind gusts to 20-25 mph before dropping off overnight.
Lows will range from the low-mid 30s western MA where lightest
winds expected to low-mid 40s SE New Eng coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Friday...
Ridging aloft with plenty of dry air in the column will bring a
mostly sunny day with lighter winds as high pres in control.
Sea- breezes expected to develop along the coast. Cooler airmass
but seasonable for late October with highs upper 50s and lower
60s.
Friday night...
Northern stream shortwave approaches from the Gt Lakes which
pushes a cold front southward across northern New Eng
overnight. Moisture ahead of the shortwave increases somewhat
which will bring increasing cloud cover but mainly dry
conditions expected as higher PWATs remain to the south and
convergence is limited. Lows will range from the upper 30s to
mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Points...
* Dry weather continues for much of this portion of the forecast,
outside of a low chance for rain Saturday.
* Below normal temperatures expected by Sunday/Monday. Above normal
temperatures expected towards the middle of next week.
Details...
Latest guidance suite is in rather good overall synoptic
pattern agreement for this portion of the forecast. There are still
some minor amplitude differences, but not enough to drastically
impact the forecast.
Still expecting dry weather to prevail through much of this portion
of the forecast due to a high pressure overhead or nearby,
especially after Saturday. There is a window for scattered showers
late Friday night into Saturday as a moisture-starved cold front
crosses southern New England. Still favoring the drier
forecast solutions given recent trends.
Expecting a pattern shift with a large high pressure moving south
from central Canada to the Mid Atlantic coast. Another cold front
Saturday should send temperatures even lower heading into early next
week. A rebound to above normal temperatures is anticipated towards
the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update: High confidence (70%).
VFR. N/NW winds gusting to 15-20kt through late afternoon,
except 20-25kt on Cape Cod and Islands. Skies clear tonight
with N/NW winds 10kt or less, then gradient remains weak enough
Fri for coastal sea breezes. It's possible we see lower-end VFR
cigs Fri especially in RI and E MA.
KBOS TAF...High confidence.
KBDL TAF...High confidence.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/
Friday Night: VFR.
Saturday through Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Monday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Fri night... High confidence.
Northerly wind gusts to 25-30 kt will impact the eastern MA
waters this evening before diminishing overnight through
Friday. Winds become locally onshore Fri afternoon nearshore
waters as sea- breezes develop. SCAs will gradually drop off
tonight over nearshore south coastal waters but continue into
Friday night over eastern MA outer waters for hazardous seas.
Outlook /Saturday through Monday/...
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Sunday through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
For Friday, expecting minimum relative humidity values of 30 to 40
percent in the interior. However, light winds expected, mostly below
10 mph.
Dry conditions will continue this weekend with increasing wind
which will lead to renewed elevated fire weather risk.
For Saturday, min RH values will be 35-45 percent with NW gusts to
20-30 mph.
For Sunday, min RH values will be 30-40 percent with NW gusts to 15-
25 mph.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ231-232.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ233-234.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ235.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ250-254-255.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ251.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...KJC/BW
MARINE...KJC/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...KJC
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 1:44 PM EDT----------------
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