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383 FXUS64 KLIX 192018AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA318 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024Benign conditions remain in place across the region as deep layerridging continues to dominate the weather pattern. This will bethe case through the entire short term period. The end result willbe continued subsidence, a lack of cloud development, lowdewpoints and dry air, and near average temperatures. Model spreadin terms of temperatures is very low, so there were no changesmade from the deterministic NBM output other than to account forany localized drainage issues along the Pearl and Pascagoula Riverbasins. The threat of coastal flooding has also diminished and isnow not expected to be an issue during high tide tonight andtomorrow night. This is largely due to the wind field being both weaker and more east- northeasterly than previously expected. &&.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday night)Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024A series of weak shortwave features moving through the Midwesternstates will help to weaken the mid to upper level ridge axis and shift it more westward toward Texas for the mid to latter portion of the week. However, strong ridging will remain in place in thelow levels, and a west-northwest flow regime aloft will prohibitthe return of any deeper moisture. Thus, mainly clear skies, lowdewpoints, and a gradual warming trend with temperatures risingaround 5 degrees above average due to the strength of the ridgeaxis to the west will be the rule through the entire extended period. Temperature spread between the various models remains small in the long term period, and the deterministic NBM was once again used for the temperature forecast. &&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024High pressure over the area will continue to bring VFR conditionsto all of the terminals through the end of the forecast period.Winds will be from the east and northeast and remain light tomoderate. PG&&.MARINE...Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024Winds and seas remain elevated today across most of the coastalwaters due to the interaction between a strong surface highcentered to the north and Tropical Storm Nadine that has now madelandfall in Belize. As the tropical storm weakens and dissipatestomorrow and Monday, the pressure gradient over the Gulf willweaken. This will result in gradually lowering wind speeds anddecreasing seas, but small craft advisory conditions will remainin place for the open Gulf waters through tomorrow night beforeimproving on Monday. High pressure will then become more centeredover the waters on Tuesday with lighter winds and seas droppingbelow 3 feet for the rest of the week. &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 50 80 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 54 81 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 51 80 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 63 78 62 79 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 55 80 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 51 80 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ550-552-555- 570-572-575-577. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ557.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ552-555-570- 572-575-577.&&$$SHORT TERM...PGLONG TERM....PGAVIATION...PGMARINE...PG
